| Cotton,as an economic crop in China,has a long history.It is found early in the Ming and Qing Dynasties.Cotton usually has been planted near the Yellow River basin.In contemporary China,it is also a big country for the production and import of cotton.Since China has entry into the World Trade Organization in the year 2001,Chinese textile industry has been developed rapidly due to the lower labor cost,better foreign investment policy and high quality control level of the textile manufacturing industry.The export volume of imported textiles is rising as well.However,as a result of the rapid expansion of the textile industry,the long-term imbalance between domestic supply and demand and related policies,cotton prices in China are showing an upside down trend in the international market.Especially in the year 2010,Chinese domestic cotton spot price fluctuated sharply.The greater volatility and unpredictability of cotton prices have brought significant risks to the cotton growers and enterprises in the cotton textile industry chain.So in recent years,according to Chinese cotton price fluctuations situation,construction the Chinese cotton price model and forecasting can help farmers rational planning of planting area in order to protect their own economic interests.China cotton price model can be used to predict the price of cotton and cotton spinning enterprises in China hedging related risk in the financial market.As an important factor influencing the price of cotton,this article uses policy analysis model to analyze the influence of policy on Chinese cotton price.During policy analysis,policy arrangement and qualitative analysis are often adopted.The policy analysis model adopted in this article adopts a quantitative index analysis method to analyze and evaluate the Chinese cotton price.The main conclusions of this article concluded that from the policy point of view,before the year 2013 the overall Chinese agrarian policy for the cotton industry has better protection and promotion,so that farmers can get better operating income by planting the cotton economicactivities.But this situation began to alter since the year 2014 the related policy has the weaker protective effect on Chinese farmers.From the perspective of profitable deviations,Chinese cotton crop does not have a useful comparative advantage as a whole.In the ten years from 2006 to 2015,profit deviated from cotton was only positive in year 2006 to 2009 and the year 2011.It is detrimental in other years.It is worth noting that this tendency has dramatically widened in year2014,and Chinese cotton has obviously lost its relative competitiveness in the global market.After putting the above policy factors as dummy variables into the form of the impact factors of cotton prices in China,this article sets up the relevant data of import and export related to cotton spinning during setting up Chinese cotton price model.The vector autoregressive model is built by collecting monthly data from June 2007 to March 2017.The forecasting model on the spot price of cotton in China can forecast the spot price of cotton in China.So predicting data obtained by Chinese cotton price model to a certain extent above for farmers and the various enterprises in the cotton industry chain provide more reference information to make decisions and reduce the risk brought by the fluctuation of cotton price. |
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