| Cotton is now the Chinese second-important crops behind the cereals.As the important strategic materials,cotton plays an important role in China’s agriculture,textile industry and the whole national economy.At present,the Chinese cotton price is very unstable,the difference in price between cotton home and abroad is wide.The instability and unpredictability seriously affect the interests of farmers,circulation and production enterprises.As a result,it has put forward new challenges to the cotton industry development in China.Therefore,this article on China’s supply and demand factors impact on cotton prices research is of great significance.Firstly,this article discusses the fluctuation of the Chinese cotton price,and then discusses the factors which can influence the price.By analyzing the current situation of cotton industry,it is concluded that China’s cotton price is influenced by supply factors and macro factors such as international and policy.In the empirical part,according to China’s textile industry earnings per share of cotton prices,securities industry classification,Guosen securities industry classification of cotton in earnings per share earnings per share,Citic securities industry classification of cotton products,cotton production,cotton yarn,cotton consumption production demand factors such as the VAR model is set up,according to Chinese cotton prices,China’s annual cotton,cotton imports in China,Chinese cotton initial inventory,China’s cotton supply factors such as the final inventory VAR model is set up,respectively,using the data stationarity test,Johansen cointegration test,granger causality test,impulse response and variance decomposition method is studied,in order to explore the Chinese cotton prices by China’s supply and demand factors,based on this,puts forward the measures and policy Suggestions to respond to China’s cotton prices change.This article research conclusion: as the biggest producing and consuming country,developingthe cotton industry has strategic significance.But Chinese cotton price volatility,cotton prices by supply and demand of China’s unilateral factors is not very significant. |
