Research On The Relationship Between Household Leverage And Housing Price Bubbles

In 2016,China proposed a supply-side structural reform,in which "destocking" is one of the main tasks of supply-side structural reform.In order to achieve the goal of destocking real estate stocks,local governments have stimulated the demand for home purchases through various purchase preferential policies,which has led to a rapid rise in home purchase loans.Since the purchase of housing loans accounts for the majority of the liabilities of the residential sector,"destocking"has led to a further increase in the leverage ratio of the residential sector.And a large number of home purchases also make housing prices usher in a new round of gains.At present,the leverage ratio of China's residential sector has been high,and the excessive leverage of the residential sector will trigger real estate bubble risk.Therefore,studying the relationship between the leverage ratio of the residential sector and the housing price bubble is conducive to helping local governments adjust real estate policies and rationally control housing prices during the process of "destocking" tasks.At present,scholars mostly study the relationship between the leverage ratio of the residential sector and the housing price bubble from a qualitative perspective.Few scholars analyze the problem from a quantitative perspective.Therefore,from a quantitative point of view,empirically study whether there is a mutual promotion relationship between the leverage ratio of the residential sector and the housing price bubble,and the dynamic impact of the dynamic change of the leverage ratio of the residents sector on the real estate bubble is of great significance.This paper firstly analyzes the relationship between the leverage ratio of the residential sector and the housing bubble,summarizes the definition of the real estate bubble and its influencing factors,and analyzes the impact of the leverage ratio of the residential sector on the real estate market bubble by constructing a theoretical model.Then,from the perspective of the current situation of the real estate market and the leverage ratio of the residential sector,through the analysis of the status quo,it is found that the leverage ratio of the residents in various cities in Zhejiang province is at a relatively high level.Then this paper analyzes the existence of the real estate bubble by using the house price income ratio index,and finds that different degrees of real estate bubbles appear in cities and towns in Zhejiang province.On this basis,reference is made to the foreign scholars to construct the real estate basic value measurement model.In order to improve the fitting effect of the model on domestic data,the applicability analysis and appropriate improvement of the model are carried out.After appropriate adjustment of the model,the real estate development investment amount,the per capita disposable income of urban residents and the five-year lending rate of financial institutions are used as explanatory variables,and the actual price of real estate from various cities in Zhejiang province is determined by random effect panel model and iterative recursive method.Separate the base value and calculate the degree of foaming.Finally,the real estate bubble degree of Zhejiang province is combined with the leverage ratio of the residents' department to carry out the panel Granger causality test,study their causal relationship with each other,and construct the panel VAR model and impulse response function to the housing bubble and the household sector leverage.The dynamic relationship between rates is studied.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,after implementing the supply-side structural reform "destocking",the housing price bubble and the leverage ratio of the residential sector in Zhejiang province have increased significantly in 2017.Second,the housing price-to-income ratio and the underlying value method have obtained a large degree of real estate bubble in various cities in Zhejiang province.Third,the leverage growth rate of the residential sector and the growth rate of the real estate bubble are two-way Granger causality.If the positive impact of a unit of leverage growth rate for the resident sector will promote the growth of the housing bubble,the duration will be one.Based on the above conclusions,some ideas for controlling housing prices and promoting the supply-side structural reforms are put forward:First,increase the construction of affordable housing and buffer urban housing prices while destocking.Second,appropriately increase the proportion of down payment and curb the real estate speculation of residents.