Analyze The Influencing Factors And Risks Of Residents’ Leverage Ratio

At the end of 2017,China’s total leverage ratio reached 278%.The total debt of the resident sector reached 44 trillion yuan,and the proportion of resident loans/GDP reached 50%.The high leverage of residents has attracted the attention of all parties.Domestic scholars have conducted many arguments about the risks caused by excessive leverage in the residential sector.However,most scholars’ research on the leverage ratio of residents is only to describe the current situation of Chinese residents’ leverage ratio.First of all,this paper takes the financial accelerator theory,the leverage cycle theory,and the financial instability theory as the theoretical basis.Through the analysis of the change trend of the leverage ratio of Chinese residents and the difference of the leverage ratio of local residents,the influencing factors of the leverage ratio of Chinese residents are studied.And through the Shanghai residents leverage rate case analysis.Among the main influencing factors,Shanghai real estate price factor is selected as a variable to empirically study its correlation with the leverage ratio of Shanghai residents.Then analyze the existing risks from three aspects: real estate credit leverage,personal consumption loan leverage and capital market credit leverage.In the empirical analysis of Shanghai real estate prices and Shanghai residents’ leverage ratio,there is indeed a long-term equilibrium relationship between the two.The empirical results show that when Shanghai residential prices rise by 1%,the leverage ratio of Shanghai residents will increase by 0.501112 points.In the risk analysis,it is found that the risk is mainly concentrated in the real estate credit leverage.By the end of 2017,the total residential housing loan reached 1.6252 billion yuan,the ratio of total housing loans to GDP reached 53.93%,and the marginal housing loan leverage ratio reached 6.15%,exceeding the national level.The level is only 1.75% lower than the peak level before the US subprime mortgage crisis.In terms of solvency,the ratio of total residential loans to disposable income of urban residents reached 129.52%,and the risk of repayment was higher.