The Research On The Bubble Level Of China’s Real Estate Market

In recent years,the development speed of the real estate market is faster and faster,the real estate industry has become the pillar industry of the national economy,and plays an indispensable role in the growth of the economy.But with the rapid development of real estate industry,in some cities in our country real estate industry presented the overheating phenomenon,the real estate bubble expand quickly,this problem not only threatens the health of the real estate industry sustainable development, but also on the long-term health development of national economy and people’s life brought no small impact.Therefore, the situation of the real estate market bubble in China to do a detailed specific comparative analysis and combining the actual situation of targeted policy recommendations is particularly necessary.To ensure the universality and the accuracy of analysis, this paper chose 30 provincial capital real estate data conducted a series of comparative analysis.First of all, from various angles respectively in 30 provincial capital real estate market development condition has carried on the comparative analysis,found that urban house price growth is different, each wire land purchase different area decline, home sales area periodically swings, vacancy area is increasing, increased investment in and showed a trend of diversification,through the comparison analysis of a provincial capital real estate market in general have a preliminary understanding.Then, combined with the housing price to income ratio, rental ratio, ratio of house price growth rate and GDP growth rate, the real estate development investment as a share of GDP will these five indexes in the provinces city real estate market bubble situation has carried on the comparative analysis,found that first-tier provincial capital cities with many bubbles,the second-tier provincial capital cities with a litter bubbles,and the third-tier provincial capital cities basic without bubbles.On this basis,select the indicators of housing price to income ratio and the ratio of house price growth to GDP growth, by utilizing the method of clustering analysis to divide the 30 provincial cities into four classes,and analysis the real estate bubble for every class.Finally, according to the empirical analysis of the above and combined with the present situation of the real estate market presents the corresponding policy recommendations,for the national real estate market specific include:standardize market order, the distinction between regulation policy, adjust the supply structure, curb excessive speculation, improve the consumer purchasing power of real estate.