Comparison And Empirical Analysis Of Real Estate Bubble Evaluation Methods

Since the housing system reform in the 1990s,the rapid growth of China's real estate market economy has become a major factor in the rapid growth of China's economy.At the same time,with the lease of commercial housing and the rapid transfer of land use rights,real estate not only has the basic attributes to meet the daily living of residents,but also gradually appears financial attributes,which makes real estate gradually become one of the important investment products in economic activities.In addition,because the real estate market itself has a high correlation with other industries,the real estate market plays an extremely important role in improving the employment rate of our country and the living standard of our residents.The development of the real estate market also promotes the development of financial industry,which makes the money capital gradually flow to the real estate market and promotes the flow of social capital.However,as the expectations of real estate market price expectations continue to rise,the speculative demand of the entire real estate market expands,making the price of the entire real estate market rising faster and faster,and the real estate market in many cities has also appeared the phenomenon of"one room is hard to find”.Although there is no consensus on whether there is a real estate bubble at this stage,the potential risks of real estate bubbles and risks have always been the focus of attention from all walks of life.Therefore,this paper makes a detailed comparative analysis of the price situation of China's real estate market and combines with relevant data to analyze the influencing factors of this phenomenon and give targeted policy recommendations.The first part is the literature review part.It reviews the relevant literature at home and abroad,and summarizes the existing research results on the real estate bubble from three aspects:the definition of real estate bubble,the measurement method of real estate bubble and the influencing factors of the real estate bubble.The second part is the real estate bubble related events,mainly for the world's several real estate bubble crisis review and lessons learned,at the same time sum up the current situation of the real estate market in China.The fourth part is the evaluation method of the real estate bubble.In order to ensure the universality and accuracy of this article,this paper will use the data of relevant real estate market in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China.This paper will use the simple index method and efficacy index method to measure the real estate price changes in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China.In the fifth chapter,the urban housing has been measured and calculated.The price-income ratio,through the panel data stepwise regression method,to obtain the influencing factors of housing price change trend.Finally,for the conclusion and outlook,it mainly interprets the empirical results economically,combines different measurement methods,and combines the corresponding economic policy system of our country,gives the corresponding summary,and puts forward appropriate policy recommendations.