An Analysis Of Factors Influencing Export Growth Of Goods From China To EU

Since the outbreak of the economic crisis in 2007,the global export trade has continued to weaken,and there have been many problems with China's exports.The changes in export growth from China to EU have been typical.The EU is an important trading partner of China.China has actively promoted the development of trade with the EU.However,since the financial crisis,political and economic turmoil in Europe and the escalation of China-European trade frictions have led to sharp fluctuations in the export growth of goods from China to EU.However,the existing literature mainly focuses on the study based on individual types of products or on individual countries,and lacks the integrated research on the overall export growth.Therefore,based on relevant international trade theories and literature,this thesis combines CMS model and gravity model to analyze the influencing factors of export growth of goods from China to EU from the aspects of direction factors and source factors.We look forward to providing reference for studies and practice on export growth of goods from China to EU.This thesis first describes the background and significance of the study,literature review of exports,research ideas,method content and innovation,expounds the relevant theoretical basis of international trade,and finds the factors affecting export growth,laying the foundation for the empirical analysis.Then,using EU Trade Helpdesk,IMF,and other databases to obtain the basic data needed for the study,the 28 products were attributed to the 11 categories according to the HS coding standard.Export growth of goods from China to EU were analyzed from the three levels of total growth,product structure,and market structure.The status of export growth and the discovery of specific problems.Then through the CMS model for decomposition calculations,we analyze the direction of export growth of goods from China to EU,and explore the effect of scale and competition.Then based on the panel data gravity model,using the PPML method for regression estimation,to analyze the source of export growth of goods from China to EU.Through the study to get relevant conclusions.Based on the theoretical analysis of the new classical trade theory,related economic factors and institutional factors influence export growth through"production comparative advantage"and"transaction cost advantage".Through the analysis of the status quo,it has been found that export growth of goods from China to EU has experienced rapid fluctuations over the past decade.Mechanical equipment and textiles&leather products are the two most important products exported to the EU.Germany,Holland,Britain,Italy and France are the main countries.Through the analysis of CMS model,it is found that the fluctuation of export growth of goods from China to EU is mainly due to the scale effect.The competitive effect of machinery and equipment in the main products is relatively stab le,and the competitive effect of textile&leather is greatly declining.The main market conditions are similar to the total growth.The empirical regression of the gravity model found that the economic scale,foreign direct investment,exchange rate,political and social stability,and the"one Belt and one Road"all showed a significant effect on export growth.Through the analysis of scale effect and competition effect,it is found that the scale effect is mainly affected by the economic scale and new trade barriers of each country,and the competition effect is mainly affected by China's economic scale and exchange rate.Finally,on the basis of the conclusions obtained,several countermeasures are proposed to promote export growth of goods from China to EU.