Research On Kenyan Tea Exports Problems Based On Constant Market Share Model

In the context of the global economic integration,competition in the international trade market has become more and more fierce,and consumers' requirements for product quality have gradually increased.In the trade of various agricultural products in the world,the scale of tea exports has fluctuated greatly.Specifically,Kenyan tea is one of the most marketable products in the development of foreign trade in recent years.As an agricultural product beneficial to people's health,its influence and status in the international market are very obvious.Tea is of great importance to Kenyan agricultural enterprises.There is evidence that,over time,the geographical distribution of tea production throughout Kenya and the types of tea produced have changed.Under this background,this article comprehensively used the method of combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis to systematically study the export problems of Kenyan tea exports.Firstly,this article analyzes and evaluates the export of Kenyan tea using indicators such as market share index,competitive advantage index and explicit comparative advantage index.The research results show that:Kenya's tea products are mainly concentrated in black tea products,and the concentration is becoming more and more obvious,and the adaptability of export tea commodity structure demand is poor;Kenya's tea product export target market is too concentrated in the Asian-African market,and it does not match the current world tea import market structure;the tea export structure has been changing in recent years,and there are signs of optimization,but the trend of optimization is not obvious.Secondly,this article uses the CMS model to conduct an empirical analysis of the volatility effect and influencing factors of Kenya's tea export from 2003 to 2018.The results show that the most important factor influencing the fluctuation of Kenya's tea export value is the constantly changing market demand,the increase in the world's demand for Kenyan tea is the main reason for the growth of Kenya's tea exports,while the decline in the competitiveness of tea,the high concentration of export markets and the unreasonable export product structure are the main factors that restrict the growth of Kenya's tea exports.Finally,this paper combined with the research conclusions put forward corresponding test recommendations for promoting the growth of Kenya's tea exports.