| The investment on rail transit project is huge,while the bank credit loan is the important source to solve the problem of financing gap.The banks face a balance of politics,revenue and risk that makes them more conservative on such kind of project loan.However,the banks often make decisions based on the traditional corporate loan model,and fail to clearly judge the project solvency with quantitative analysis.This thesis takes Xiamen rail transit project as the research case to reassess the financial risks to make sure the reliability in project financing model in the viewpoint of a commercial bank.The main research contents are as follows:identification and analysis of credit risk in the rail transit project;implementation of comprehensive risk assessment on the Xiamen rail transit project using the current credit risk management system of X Bank,construction of project revenue model and quantitatively analysis of the project debt coverage ratio with Monte Carlo simulation method to determine the project financial risk;suggestions to improve risk control are proposed on the basis of the evaluation results.Research results indicate that:(1)under the current X Bank's credit risk management system,the project risk is in the medium level,but there is an inadequacy in the analysis of project core solvency with this system.(2)It can be judged that the qualitative credit risk of this project is low and feasibility is high.(3)The reassessment results obtained by Monte Carlo simulation method confirm basically reliable by using the current X Bank's credit risk management system.(4)However,X Bank should take some measures to improve the risk prevention and control ability,such as further improving the evaluation system for project loans,establishing a perfect risk information sharing mechanism of syndicated loan gradually,focusing on and monitoring the risk factors which affect the project solvency,and requiring the borrower to provide other guarantee measures. |
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