Empirical Research On The Potential Trade Growth Of China, Japan And South Korea

Recently, the East Asia which locates China, Japan and South Korea has become one of the world's fastest growing area with the rapid development of these three economics. However, the bilateral relations of these three economicses changed into different situations. On one hand, China and South Korea took the lead in signing the CKFTA in 2015 and put into effect in this year at 2016. On the other hand, the economic relationship between China-Japan and South Korea-Japan become worse by the cold political relations. So under such a dedicated situation, this paper tends to make a comparison between China, Japan and Korea which have the common elements with different characteristics. And figure of whether these three countries could continue to maintain rapid growth of bilateral trade, and meanwhile, it became more and more important to find out do they have the possibilities for China to create new situations with this two partners in facing with the increasingly competition in modern international trade. So this paper uses the Gravity Model to analysis the trade status of these three countries with qualitative and quantitative methods. Moreover, this paper also forecast the potential trade between these three countries. And the predicted results not only bring some new thinking and inspiration in the research of China-Japan-South Korea FTA but also mean a lot in strengthen the trade relations between China and these two important countries in east Asian.This paper tries to discuss and analysis the current situation and influencing factors in China, Japan and South Korea bilateral trade. It includes six chapters, in the first chapter it made a literature review of Current Trade Situation of China Japan and South Korea, the Influencing Factors, the Problems and Policy Recommendations in this three countries and the conclude the development of Gravity Model theory, all this reviews lads the foundation for the following research. In the second chapter, it defined the core theory of this paper such as the development of international trade theory, free trade area theory and the forecast theory, these concepts are important theoretical concepts throughout this paper. The third concept represent the economic and trade situation between China, Japan and South Korea comprehensively with a reasonable order. The fourth chapter focuses on the factors that influence the trade relations between these three countries and figures out the several factors that affect the trade with China, Japan and South Korea. Then the fifth chapter makes a quantitative analysis by the expansion of Gravity Model on the basis of the previous chapter and predicted the potential trade by qualitative and quantitative analysis in this area. At the end, the sixth chapter makes conclusions of the receding summary and raises proposals to strengthen trade and enhance trade potential by the predicted of last chapter.This paper has following conclusion with qualitative analysis and empirical research. Firstly, cultural exchange plays an important role for the trade among these three countries. Secondly the establishment of the CJKFTA can be very effective in promoting the development of the three free trade zone. And finally, the impact of the three bilateral factors affecting trade diversified, there is further enhance for improvement of bilateral trade between the three countries.