Influence Factors And Trade Potential Of Sino-US Agricultural Trade Based On Trade Gravity Model

With the acceleration of economic globalization,agricultural trade plays a very important role in the country’s foreign trade.Agriculture is a traditional industry in China,which plays a very important role in promoting the national economy.Since the formal establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States on January 1,1979,Sino-US economic and trade cooperation has entered a new era.The fields of cooperation and trade in agricultural products continue to expand.Especially since China’s accession to the WTO in 2001,the development momentum of agricultural products trade between China and the United States has become more strong,and agricultural products trade has become an important driving force in the Sino-US economic and trade relations.It plays an important role in the economic and trade development of China and the United States.In this paper,representative factors of Sino-US agricultural trade are selected to carry out empirical regression model analysis of the influencing factors.Based on the empirical results,this paper calculates the trade potential of agricultural products between China and the United States,and finally puts forward suggestions based on the above analysis,which is of great significance for promoting the trade of agricultural products between China and the United States and improving the international trade status of China’s agricultural products.This paper collects the relevant data from 2001 to 2021,firstly defines the concept and classification standards of agricultural products,and then analyzes the typical facts of agricultural trade between China and the United States in detail from the aspects of trade scale,trade structure and trade index.Secondly,representative influencing factors are selected as explanatory variables for the analysis of Sino-US agricultural trade,an expanded trade gravity model is established,and an empirical analysis is conducted on Sino-US agricultural products from the overall and classified perspectives to estimate the potential of Sino-US agricultural trade in the future,providing mathematical support for the development of Sino-US agricultural trade in the future.The empirical results show that there is a significant relationship between China’s crop sown area,China’s economic and trade freedom,the US economic and trade freedom,the exchange rate and the proportion of fixed investment in agriculture,forestry,husbandry and fishery between China and the US agricultural trade.Although the trade scale between China and the United States has declined due to the trade friction,the development potential of Sino-US agricultural products in the future is huge.Finally,based on the background of the new economic and trade pattern between China and the United States and the typical facts of Sino-US agricultural trade,the paper puts forward some suggestions to promote Sino-US agricultural trade.Mainly: the implementation of diversified agricultural production chain,building a solid foundation of foreign trade;To resolve "obstacles and misunderstandings" in the trade of agricultural products between China and the US through high-level visits;Increase investment in agriculture,strengthen the training of scientific and technological personnel,improve the mode of production;Improving the stability of monetary policy and reducing financial risks;Implement differentiated agricultural export strategy to increase the added value of agricultural products;Strengthen agricultural opening to the outside world,actively participate in world economic cooperation,and constantly enhance the export competitiveness of our agricultural products.