Research On The Grey Evaluation Model Of Modern Marine Fishery Investment Risk In Shandong Province

Modern marine fishery is a multi-level,multi-structure and multi-objective strategic emerging industry which integrates modern technology and comprehensive management.At present,Shandong Province has increased its investment in modern marine fisheries,and it is of great significance for the development of "blue economy" and the realization of the conversion of new and old kinetic energy.However,modern marine fishery as a new industry has a high risk.If there is no complete and effective investment risk assessment system,it is difficult to estimate the risks or costs that may be caused by investing in modern marine fishery industries.Therefore,the investment risk of modern marine fisheries has attracted the attention of the government,enterprises and academia.Based on the previous studies,this paper mainly constructs the grey evaluation system of modern marine fishery investment risk in Shandong Province based on grey relational analysis and grey-analytic hierarchy process,and draws conclusions.The research goal of this paper is to evaluate the overall risk of modern marine fishery investment in Shandong Province and establish a grey evaluation mechanism for investment risk.First of all,by combing the relevant literature,it is found that the evaluation methods for modern marine fishery investment risk are single,and the evaluation indicators mainly include systemic risk and non-systematic risk.In addition,based on the research review,the basic analysis of the investment risk evaluation mechanism and the grey system theory is carried out,and the grey-analytic analysis method is selected as the evaluation model.Secondly,the research analyzes the development status of modern marine fishery investment risk in Shandong Province,including systemic risk,non-systemic risk and investment income,and the study found that fishery investment activities are affected by exchange rate,interest rate,purchasing power level,fixed asset investment and financial subsidies,etc;and studies have drawn the restrictive factors,including small fishery subsidies,difficult fishery loans and heavy economic losses caused by fishery disasters,are obtained.Thirdly,24 indicators representing systemic risk,non-systemic risk and investment income are selected.Descriptive statistics and grey relational analysis models are used to analyze the evaluation indicators.The grey correlation degree of the2012-2017 evaluation indicators is basically above 0.85,and the selected indicators can be used as the evaluation indicators to analyze the risk of Shandong Province fishery investment.Finally,on the basis of the completion of the construction of the indicator system,the grey-hierarchical evaluation model is established,and the data from 2012 to 2017 is introduced into the model.The study found that the weight distribution of the three main factor risk indicators is balanced,and the investment risks mainly include fishery financial subsidy policy,fishery loan policy,thefishery environment,the technical level,the financial status of the fishery enterprises,the fishery industry structure and the investment in fixed assets.Using the grey-hierarchical analysis method to evaluate and find the correct direction for risk prevention and control.There are three main conclusions :(1)Among the indicators of systemic risk,the higher weight is the policy risk and the environmental risk.On the one hand,insufficient financial subsidies and insufficient efforts on fisheries loans have placed greater emphasis on the importance of transforming fiscal support methods and innovative fisheries financial support models.On the other hand,the degree of pollution in the fishery environment is relatively heavy,and the fishery environmental protection mechanism should be improved.(2)Among the indicators of non-systemic risk,technical risk and financial risk have higher weights.On the one hand,there is a common problem of homogeneity in the process of technological "imitation and innovation" in fishing enterprises.On the other hand,in financial risk indicators,the weight of debt level,profitability and liquidity indicators is higher.Therefore,to achieve the design of fishery chain,promoting the development of fishery supply chain finance,improving the independent innovation ability and technological competitiveness of fishery enterprises.(3)By calculating the index weight,the investment income mainly considers two aspects: fishery industry structure and fishery fixed assets investment.Therefore,industrial integration should be accelerated and diversified forms of investment in fishery fixed assets should be developed.