| Pork is a more popular food than beef and mutton which has certain irreplaceability for Chinese consumers.Feeding pigs consumes food,and the price of hog are indirect affected by the price of food.This effect is transmitted along the industrial chain to pork price.In recent years,the price of pork fluctuates frequently,which not only affects the quality of life of consumers,but also brings market risks to pig farmers.The roller coaster-type fluctuations in the profits of pig breeding have dampened the production enthusiasm of farmers and are harmful to the healthy development of the pig industry.The vertical price transmission relationship within the graduate pig industry has important strategic significance for providing reasonable control measures and ensuring stable supply of live pig.This article takes Jilin Province as the research area,and selects the monthly prices of pork,pig,piglet,and corn in Jilin Province from January 2000 to December 2016 as data.The vertical conduction relationship of hog prices in Jilin province is explored through the comprehensively using the methods of unit root test,cointegration test,and granger causal relation test.First,the paper lays a good foundation for the following part of the article by explaining the concepts related to the longitudinal transmission of live pig price,and elaborates the mechanism of the vertical transmission of live pig price.Second,the dissertation conducts descriptive statistical analysis on selected product data and finds that when these data are presented in a time-series manner,the price of live pig is consistent with the price of pork on the volatility and fluctuation cycle,and the price of piglet is in the fluctuation cycle.Approaching the price of live pig,there is a certain similarity between the overall trend of corn price and the price of live pig.Afterwards,the paper conducts empirical analysis on the internal relationship between pork price,pig process,piglet process and corn price,and reveals the guiding relations,price transmission paths,intensity,and efficiency of prices in various aspects of the pig industry in Jilin Province,in order to ensure pig breeding in Jilin Province,to ensure the healthy development of pig breeding industry in Jilin province,and to promote the smooth operation of the market price policy basis.Through the study of this paper,the following conclusions are drawn: First.In the hog industry chain,the prices of corn,piglets,live pigs and pork have similarities in the fluctuation cycle and fluctuation range;Second.The pig industry has a long-term equilibrium price transmission relationship;Third.The price transmission path of the hog industry has both single and two-way effects.Fourth.Pork price transmission efficiency is the highest in the price transmission of the pig industrial chain;5.Pork prices have the greatest degree of impact on the price transmission of pig industrial chain.Based on research conclusions,the paper proposes the following policy recommendations: First.Establish a perfect mechanism for the production and supply of live pig;Afterwards.Perfect the live pig market system;One more.Perfect the insurance of pig industry;Finally.Improve the effectiveness of policy control. |
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