Study On Price Conduction Of Pig Industry Chain In Sichuan Province

Sichuan Province is a large province of pig breeding and pork consumption in China,and its annual pig output and pork consumption account for about 10% of the country all year round,which is at the leading level in the country.At the same time,Sichuan pig is also a characteristic signboard of the "10+3" industrial system of modern agriculture in Sichuan Province.one.In recent years,due to the influence of various internal and external factors,the prices of various links in the live pig industry chain in Sichuan Province have fluctuated to varying degrees,with large and frequent fluctuations,making it difficult for the interests of participants in all links of the live pig industry chain to be effectively obtained.At the same time,it also has an adverse impact on the pork consumption side.Based on the above background,this paper conducts an empirical study on the vertical transmission characteristics of the price of live pig industry chain in Sichuan Province.After preprocessing the price series of the live pig industry chain in Sichuan Province,the OX software is used to construct the Markov zoning conversion vector autoregression model on the Give Win-Ox Pack platform:MSIH(3)-VAR(2),and the parameter estimation results and models are obtained.The correlation coefficient matrix,regional system state transition probability and properties,h-step prediction probability,and Sichuan live pig industry chain price transfer impulse response function graph under different regional system states are used to analyze the empirical results.The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)The price fluctuation and transmission of the live pig industry chain in Sichuan Province presents the characteristics of regional system transformation.,the price variables of each link of the live pig industry chain in Sichuan Province are transformed to varying degrees in different zoning states,and the "stable zoning" has a relatively high probability and a long duration,and the "rising zoning" and "falling zoning" decreased in turn;for the same price variable,under the three different zoning states,the degree to which it is affected by other price variables is different.Next time,the "drop zone system" is the weakest.(2)The vertical transmission of prices in the live pig industry chain in Sichuan Province is asymmetric.It is manifested as follows: no matter what kind of zoning state,the degree of influence between price variables is unequal;secondly,in different zoning states,each price variable is mainly affected by its own price,and the influence is greater than other price factors.Based on the above empirical research results,in order to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the live pig industry in Sichuan Province,ensure the effective and stable supply of live pigs,and maintain the relatively stable fluctuation of the price of the live pig industry chain,vigorously promote the construction of the modern agricultural "10+3" industrial system in Sichuan Province,wipe To highlight the characteristic signboard of "Sichuan Pig",this article will put forward the following suggestions and measures:(1)Support the large-scale and standardized development of pig breeding and improve the efficiency of pig breeding;(2)Innovatively apply the "insurance + futures" model of the Sichuan pig market to reduce Price risk of the pig industry chain;(3)Improve the provincial pig information service system and strengthen the information management of the pig industry chain;(4)Strengthen the monitoring and prevention of epidemic diseases to ensure the quality and safety of the pig industry chain.