Research On Credit Risk Of Residential Mortgage Loan Of Commercial Banks In China

The continuous development of the real estate industry has become an important pillar of the national economy.Whether it is used for living or as an investment,buying a house has always been the hottest topic.The slowdown in economic growth,the rise of internet finance,and the acceleration of interest rate liberalization have all made the banking industry more competitive.Banks,based on profitability considerations,have made significant efforts to issue individual housing mortgage loans to earn more stable income.In order to secure a higher market share,commercial banks may lower their loan requirements and relax their assessment of the assets of lenders.This will inevitably lead to an increase in non-performing assets of commercial banks.Taking into account the phenomenon of high prices in many cities,if housing prices show a downward trend,it is bound to have serious consequences for the banking industry.Just like this,this article uses the perspective of banks to study the default probability of China's housing mortgage loans.It first analyzes the default factors of individual home mortgage loans,and then further demonstrations from empirical and case studies to identify the default factors affecting personal housing mortgage loans.Finally,we give policy recommendations based on the actual situation in China.Based on the theoretical analysis of the KMV model,the paper concludes that there are five factors that affect the default probability of individual home mortgage loans:house price volatility,loan term,loan interest rate,down payment ratio,and risk-free interest rate.Subsequently,a binary Logistic model was constructed using SPSS 19.0 statistical software for empirical analysis.The data was derived from 633 loan data from a commercial bank in Handan City,Hebei Province.In empirical analysis,the author creatively divided 12 factors into three groups.The first group is the core factor obtained by theoretical analysis;the second group is based on the core factors and adds all the microscopic variables to the model;the third group adds all the variables to the model,and the macro variables also enter the model at this time.Finally,a case study was conducted to further demonstrate the factors affecting the probability of default on individual home mortgage loans.This article adopts a combination of empirical analysis and case analysis.The following conclusions can be drawn.First,house price volatility is a significant factor in the impact of personal home mortgage default rates.The greater the volatility of housing prices,the greater the default probability of borrowers.The empirical results show that the house price volatility increases by 1%,and the probability of the borrower defaulting is 1.372 times that of its non-default probability.Second,the down payment ratio has a significant impact on the default rate of individual home mortgage loans.The case analysis results show that for every 1%increase in the down payment ratio,the borrower's probability of default will decrease by 0.29%.Third,the risk-free interest rate will affect the probability of default,and the greater the risk-free interest rate,the less likely the borrower defaults.Fourth,loan interest rate and loan maturity have no effect on the probability of default.Fifth,housing value and loan balance significantly affect the probability of default,and the macroeconomic environment is also an important factor affecting the probability of default.For every 1%increase in the unemployment rate,the probability of the borrower defaulting is 1.562 times that of its non-default probability.Based on the empirical results of this paper,the author gives four policy recommendations,including pre-lending review,post-lending management,post-lending prevention,and pay attention to macroeconomic policies.