An Study On The Risk Of Commercial Banks’ Personal Housing Mortgage Loan

Personal housing mortgage loan, although has a late start, has occupied a large part of personal loans, and become one of the main assets of the commercial banking business. In recent years, as the continuous introduction of real estate control policies, personal housing mortgage business has been impacted. How to resist external shocks, and form a well-established residential mortgage credit risk prevention mechanism has become a major issue faced by commercial banks. This paper aims to analyze the status of China’s development of personal housing mortgage loans, pointing out the current problems, and also analyze the costumers of S-city Branch of bank A to find out what factors have more significant links to personal housing loan delinquencies. Meanwhile, this paper attempts to introduce MCLP model to the study of personal housing mortgage loans, and analyze its prediction accuracy compared with existing methods.This paper first describes the background and significance of the paper, and introduces the research status of personal housing mortgage defaults, indicating the feasibility of using Logistic model and MCLP model for individual housing mortgage defaults, and propose the research ideas and research methods of this paper.Secondly, it introduces the development status of China’s personal housing mortgage loans, and points out the problems in the development process of personal housing mortgage, taking the costumers of S-city Branch of bank A as examples. In this chapter, this paper also figures out the importance of establishing a complete scientific explanation of personal housing mortgage credit evaluation system.Then, this paper uses descriptive statistics method to preliminarily analyze what factors have more significant links to personal housing loan delinquencies. This paper uses 15 indicators of the costumers of S-city Branch of bank A about costumers’basic personal circumstances, personal credit situation and loan information. On this basis, this paper uses Logistic model and MCLP model to do empirical research, and find out that education, work status, family income, household and whether there are other loans not yet finished are the five major factors that have significant impacts on the situation of default. At last of the chapter, this paper compares the accuracy of MCLP modeland Logistic model.At the end of the paper, this paper makes some suggestions for commercial banks to the development of personal housing mortgage loans. In the loan management process, commercial bank should focus on customer education, work status, family income, household and whether there are other loans not yet finished five indicators, meanwhile, should strengthen the individual mortgages internal management Finally, this paper analyzes the shortcomings of this paper, and Research prospects.