Research On Risk Management Of Personal Housing Mortgage Loan

With the economic development and the continuous advancement of urbanization,the real estate market has achieved unprecedented prosperity,which promotes the development of commercial banks’ housing mortgage loan business.The housing mortgage loan business has also become an important pillar of Agricultural Bank of China L branch’s asset business.However,with the implementation of the policy of "Houses are for living,not for speculation" at the Central Economic Work Conference,the real estate industry has gradually entered a new normal,giving rise to a new challenge for the personal housing mortgage loan business.The government has also changed its work functions and policy orientation,no longer simply stimulating the real estate market to drive local economic development.Stabilizing land prices and housing prices,stabilizing expectations,and maintaining the stable and healthy development of the real estate market have become more and more important.In addition,the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on the real economy and the impact of the "Concentrated Management System for Real Estate Loans" issued by the People’s Bank of China in December last year on the subsequent real estate market loans and mortgage loan lines will bring about many uncertainties for personal housing mortgage loans.In the current environment,how to improve the asset quality of personal housing mortgage loans and how to manage risks have become important issues for Agricultural Bank of China L branch.Under above-mentioned background,this article collects and consults literature and books related to personal housing loans and risk management of commercial banks,and integrates the relevant concepts,theories and research results of housing mortgage loan risk management,such as information asymmetry theory and comprehensive risk management theory,rational default and passive default theory,LTV management theory,etc.On the basis of theoretical analysis,the basic situation of L branch of Agricultural Bank of China is introduced,and the current housing mortgage loan business of L branch is analyzed in detail.Through the data,we explore the influence of the centralized management system of real estate loan and the influence of COVID-19 on L branch’s housing mortgage loan business and risk management,risk status,risk management framework and the implementation effect of current risk management.The the article analyzes in detail the influencing factors of housing loan risk of L branch,and analyzes some typical risk cases of housing mortgage loan encountered in the work.This article focuses on the empirical analysis of the housing mortgage loan risk assessment of L branch.First,the article conducts a questionnaire on the credit line staff of the L branch to estimate the current risk factors that are generally considered of the current housing mortgage loans of L branch.The determined risk factors are summarized and divided into: borrower risk identification,operational risks and ethical risks during loan approval process,the guarantee situation,the restriction mechanism of cooperative institutions,the collection and disposal of non-performing loans,etc.Then the article uses risk factors as explanatory variables to establish a Logistic regression model,and then verifies the relevant hypotheses with the model’s significance test,and finally gets the regression results to achieve the purpose of evaluating the risk of housing mortgage loans in L branch,and then explore the causes of the above explanatory variables.Finally,according to the different aspects of loan approval,the article puts forwards risk management and control strategies for housing mortgage loan such as strictly implementing the identification of borrowers’ access,strictly controlling the evaluation of collaterals of housing mortgage loans,strengthening the due diligence during investigation,approval,and review process,and introducing the restriction mechanism of cooperative institutions,strengthening the compliance training of handling personnel,arranging the collection of special attention loans in advance,and increasing the performance rewards for the collection and write-off of non-performing loans,etc.