Research On Risk Evaluation Of PPP Project Based On AHP-DEA Method

With the successful convocation of the CPC 19th National Congress,the economic development of our country keeps the New Normal.And the urban infrastructure construction has been arriving at a new attitude with balant ecology,peaceful life,harmonious production,long evous lifebreath.However,the city "road zippers","air spider webs" and other problems become more serious day by day.In order to improve the new image of urban infrastructure,perfect the appearance of city,and promote the harmonious and sustainable development of city-society-ecology,the underground integrated pipe gallery with PPP model is favored by the government.PPP model can not only immit social private capital to participate in the construction of underground integrated pipe gallery projects,but also use the advanced technology and management resources of social private capital to improve the efficiency of PPP project construction and the quality of operation and service work.Eventually,it is a promotation that the Public and the Private forms mutually beneficial "win-win" partnerships that share risks and benefits fairly.Although the underground integrated pipe gallery project is an essential part of the modern urban infrastructure,but the uncertainty of project risk becomes the key to the success of the project in the PPP model.How to formulate an effective risk strategy to deal with PPP project risk is an urgent and real question.At present,however there are relatively a few results about PPP project risk research about the underground integrated pipe gallery.This paper extends the scope of PPP project risk studies,and it has some theoretical references and practical values in a sense.Firstly,the paper begins to introduce the background and significance,and gets the point that the risk assessment of underground integrated pipe gallery under PPP project.Secondly,it gives a detailed introduction that the concepts and characteristics of the PPP,underground integrated pipe gallery and project risk management.Based on the PPP project risk related research literature,the paper focuses on the potential risks of the underground integrated pipe gallery under PPP with the example of the underground integrated pipe gallery under PPP in the new district of XHL city.The risk list of the underground integrated pipe gallery under PPP is identified and summarized effectively.And it is stratified and classified according to the qualitative logic of risk.This paper selects six risk evaluation indexes which are consisted of political risk,financing risk,environmental risk,construction risk,operational risk and accidental force risk to establish the risk evaluation system for the underground integrated pipe gallery under PPP.Thirdly,relying on the analysis theories of AHP and DEA,the impact weights of major risk indexes are calculated by the subjective and objective perspective with the help of questionnaire survey data independenly.To make the paper more convince and referent value,the AHP-DEA model is set-up based on the analysis of the advantages of both.It evaluates the risk of PPP projects' weights and ranks in the underground integrated pipe gallery of the new district,XHL City.It is found that operational risk is the most significant impact,the financing and construction risk are more significant impact,and political risk,environmental risk and accidental force risk are less significant impact in turn on the running of PPP projectIn the end,this paper puts forward the coping strategy of PPP project risks with the thorough analysis of the evaluated result,and it's a significently practical basis for the government in new district of XHL city to further supervise the project risk and same as the private capital to participate in the risk management of underground integrated pipe gallery under PPP actively.