Research On Nonlinear Early Warning System Of Local Government Debt Risk In China

The sovereign debt crisis in Europe,America and other countries in recent years,has caused the global concern of the government's debt risk.The local government debt in China has many problems,such as large debt scale,high debt paying pressure,and some areas breaking through the red line of debt rate.In particular,the current economy is in the stage of"three phase superposition" and increasing downward pressure.The huge debt risk has brought serious and urgent challenges to the national economic security.The nineteen meeting of the Communist Party of China clearly put forward to prevent and resolve major risks of building a well-off society in the "three battle" in the first place.The precaution and early warning of local government debt risk is obviously an important part.The above shows that the problem of local government debt risk has aroused great concern in the decision-making level of the country.It is very urgent and necessary to design a scientific and operational local government debt risk early warning system,to monitor and predict the local government debt risk in time and effectively,and to take forward and targeted debt risk solutions.This paper draws on the warning idea of "nonlinear lead method",beginning form the "borrowing-use-repayment" of the local government debt operation.Based on the risk chain perspective,the input and output index system of the local government debt risk nonlinear pilot is designed.On that basis,using soft computing method integration technology,using the TOPSIS-AHP method and K-MEANS clustering method to calculate the sample values of local government debt comprehensive risk output and classify the risk range during"11th five-year plan" and "twelfth five-year" period in our country,using the noise signal ratio method,based on risk pilot warning performance to reduce the downsizing dimension of warning the input index,then the early warning input and output sample data are imported into the GA-BP neural network as the core early warning model to carry out the training and inspection of the warning of debt risk,so that an early warning system for the non-linear nature of local government debt risk is constructed.Finally,by the use of early warning system in the local government debt risk to carry out the risk assessment and forecast of local government debt during the 13th five-year plan period.It is found that local government debt risks are generally high and regional differences are significant.Further analysis of the prediction results of the sub link,we find that the comprehensive risk of debt in the eastern region is mainly led by the risk of debt utilization.The comprehensive risk of debt in the central region is caused by the superposition of the debt use link and the repayment link risk.The debt risk in the western region is caused by the risk of debt repayment.Accordingly,on the one hand,based on the short-term perspective of local debt risk prevention,the specific policy suggestions are put forward to prevent and control local government debt risk from the aspects of standardizing the use behavior of debt financing behavior and debt fund repayment behavior of local government.On the other hand,this paper puts forward suggestions to resolve the local government debt risk on a medium and long term perspective on local debt risk prevention,from deepening the reform of the financial system to alleviate the pressure of local debt financing,standardizing the local government debt financing mechanism,improving the construction of the assessment and supervision and accountability system of local government debt and perfecting the construction of the government debt risk early warning mechanism.