Research On Early Warning Of Local Government Debt Risk In My Country

In response to the global financial crisis in 2008,China added an additional 4 trillion investment plans to stimulate domestic economic growth.In addition,the government also adopts proactive fiscal policies and loose monetary policies to regulate the national economy.For example,the 15-year Central Economic Work Conference has also explicitly mentioned that we should hold the work of deleveraging,maintaining prudent and neutral monetary policy,and find the banlance between steady growing and deleveraging.Under these fiscal and monetary policies,the decline in China's economic growth has gradually improved.However,the continuous expansion of the scale of local government debt and the intensification of the risk of debt default have followed.Among them,the risk of local government debt default is the most serious and comes first.From a macro perspective,at this stage,China is still in a deleveraging phase of a long-term debt cycle,and the pressure on debt adjustment is still heavy.The core of the deleveraging reform is to reduce risks to ensure the regularity,legitimacy and sustainability of government debt.The core of government debt risk management is to strictly regulate the government's debt-raising behavior,and to create favorable conditions for deeper reforms such as supporting enterprise debt settlement and providing market trading mechanisms.Therefore,building a risk early warning model has important theoretical guiding significance for strengthening the management of local government debt risk in China.This paper firstly describes the basic meaning of local government debt from the theoretical perspective,and sorts out the connotation,classification and form of local government debt.Analyzed the multi-statistical caliber of local government debt,based on the representativeness of the data,applied the statistical caliber of the Audit Office to the statistics of this paper.Secondly,this paper introduce the development of local government debt history and present situation.The current local government debt in China is still in a period of substantial increase,and there are many problems.If these problems are not solved timely,they will have an adverse effect on the further development of our local economy.Finally,aiming at the local government's risk problems,this paper comprehensively analyzes the formation factors of domestic local government debt risk,and confirms the Bayesian network parent by selecting a specific index system and using Granger causality test and other econometric methods.Nodes and subnodes,and then based on the minimum warning misjudgment rate theory to determine the best threshold for early warning indicators,and use the maximum likelihood method to predict the Bayesian network node index,the establishment of regional government debt risk warning model.Finally,Bayesian network is used to implement early warning and assessment of local government debt risk,and at the same time,effective institutional advice and risk prevention measures are provided to mitigate the risk of default of regional government debt.