Research On Early Warning Of Debt Risk Of Local Government In China

Since the global economic crisis broke out in 2008,in order to cope with it,China has taken certain measures to adjust its policies,and carried out the reform and adjustment of fiscal policy and monetary policy nationwide.This series of measures have a good stimulating effect on the economy,but also brought a series of problems,the most serious of which is about China’s local areas The debt risk problems accumulated by the government have ushered in a peak period of debt repayment for local governments in various places.We need to effectively control the risk exposure of local government debt,and the prior control is also the most effective early warning.In view of the imperfections of the early warning mechanism of local government debt in China,this paper focuses on the early warning mechanism Conduct research.First of all,in the first and second chapters,we collect and investigate the relevant data,understand the research status at home and abroad,analyze and summarize the research status,and draw the key content and problems that need to be studied.We need to focus on and solve the problems of large-scale debt,high debt risk,especially high hidden debt risk and imperfect early warning mechanism.Because of the bad control of implicit debt and the lack of previous studies,this paper adds the research and calculation of implicit debt,which is an innovation of this paper.In the third chapter,we make a qualitative analysis based on the government balance sheet,and draw the conclusion that the recessive debt is mainly concentrated in the provincial government and the regional difference is large.Because of the great influence of implicit debt on our debt risk,we calculate the implicit debt in Chapter4.Through comparison,we come to the conclusion that indirect method is more appropriate.We also calculate and analyze the implicit debt scale of 8 representative provinces in China,and put forward different suggestions for different provinces.The fifth chapter is the empirical part.We use two models to evaluate the debt risk and early warning mechanism,which is another innovation of this paper.First,we use KMV model to evaluate the debt risk of representative provinces and predict the future situation.Then we combine the gray correlation analysis and Bayesian model to study,add the implicit debt into the model,analyze the situation of each province in the country and make suggestions.Chapter six and chapter seven are the suggestions and countermeasures we put forward for the problems mentioned above,including improving the information disclosure system,establishing a reasonable early warning system,establishing a debt service reserve system,etc.We hope that the research of this paper can improve the current early warning mechanism of local debt risk in China,and have a better control mechanism of implicit debt.We hope that the research of this paper can have a certain control role and reference significance for government debt risk.