Research On The Early-Warning Syetem Of Risks In Local Government Debt

Since the economic crisis erupted in 2008, our government has carried out the proactive fiscal policy and moderate looser monetary policy, which has kept down the tendency of declining economic growth. At the same time, our government debt risk problem has emerged. How to manage the risk of local government debt exposure has become a major challenge to local government. This paper has carried on research about the local government debt risk pre-warning problem to find out a more accurate index that can reflect the local government debt risk, and to establish a system model that can properly evaluate and warn our local government risk. The study adapts our present financial system reforms, which has great theoretical significance and practical value.This paper summarized the research situation at home and abroad systematically, put forward the problems that need to be investigated. From the related concepts of the basic concept of the local government debt risk early-warning system, the paper analyzed and induced the category, characteristic and the risk classification of local government debt. On this basis, clarified fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and the theory of government debt management thereby lay a theoretical foundation for the following study. Secondly, the paper designed the local government debt risk early-warning system entirely. Based on the situation of local government debt risk, analyzed the feasibility of the early warning system of local government debt risks, and explained the overall idea of the local government debt risk early-warning system design and its examination scope. On this basis, this paper applied the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and the debt continuable variable dynamic model to establish the risk index system and the local government debt risk early-warning model. Finally, based on the northeast H city as the research case, the paper used the local government debt risk early-warning to reveal this city's bad debt and the debt risk, and then proposed suggestions from dissolving history debt risk, strengthening management of the new debt and implementing supporting measures to optimize its adverse financial status.