Research On The Establishment Of Early Warning Mechanism Of Local Government Debt Risk In New Urbanization

With the continuous deepening of reform and opening up,China has ushered in a new situation of economic development.At the same time as the rapid economic development,various problems accompany.More prominent are the expansion of the scale of local government debt and the intensification of debt risk.According to statistics,the total amount of local government debt in 2016 was as high as 26 trillion yuan,which did not include some hidden debts.In the latest Party Central Document "Opinions on Strengthening the Management of Local Government Debt," government debt is no longer translucent.The Party Central Committee clearly stipulates that provincial governments can issue their own bonds,but there are corresponding limits.The data shows that in 2016,the urbanization rate in China is already approaching 57.35%.At the same time,the calculations show that for every new percentage of urbanization,investment demand will reach around 7 trillion yuan.Experts predict that by 2030,the urbanization rate in China will reach 68%.The rural population is constantly approaching the city,bringing a lot of human resources to the development of the city.However,the backward supporting facilities and the narrow development pattern are in contradiction with the huge population.Local governments must expand the scale of public investment to coordinate urban development.Under the condition of asymmetric power between the central and local fiscal power,local debt development and economic development have become inevitable.The issue of local government debt is an unavoidable topic.However,as of now,China does not have a complete mechanism to prevent local debt risks.Therefore,based on the existing data,this paper designs a more reasonable and complete risk warning mechanism.The article uses a combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods,combined with the new urbanization of local government issues.The risk measurement index system was constructed from the three dimensions of dynamic risk,structural risk,and scale risk risk,and the index correction risk early warning model was selected.In addition,this paper analyzes the risk source,risk transmission mechanism and risk receptor based on the enterprise risk management framework.Finally,the follow-up safeguards for the risk early warning mechanism of this article put forward relevant recommendations,mainly including the normative construction of local government debt risk,information platform construction,and early warning team optimization.