The Effect Of RMB Appreciation On Consumption Structure

In the report of the 19th National Congress,consumption has been mentioned many times.Consumption has become the primary driving force for China's economic development,of which the contribution of consumption upgrading to China's economic growth has exceeded 60%.With the rapid development of China's economy,consumer spending has continued to rise.As a index that more effectively assesses the quality of China's consumer spending,consumer structure still faces a series of problems.The proportion of consumption to income is relatively low in China,and the consumption structure needs to be improved.First of all,the service consumption of the Chinese has begun to increase,but the proportion is still relatively low;secondly,both traditional consumption and new-type consumption increase at the same time.Changes are taking place in China.Consumer transformation and consumer upgrading are also happening.It is of great theoretical and practical significance to study the impact of exchange rate policy on consumption structure in order to promote the goal of upgrading consumption structure.There is an inseparable link between exchange rate policy and national economic development.Consumption,as an important part of the national economy,will also be affected by exchange rate fluctuations.As China's openness to the outside world has expanded,more and more foreign consumer goods have flowed into China,and China's finished products have also become more global.In the area of household consumption and the production,the influence of the RMB exchange rate has become more and more obvious.The effects of exchange rate fluctuations have also increased.After the RMB exchange reform in 2005,the RMB exchange rate continued to be in a rising period.The impact of the appreciation of the RMB on the consumption structure of residents began to enter the research horizon of scholars.After more than 10 years,domestic scholars have made many valuable achievements regarding the impact of RMB exchange rate on residents' consumption structure,but they have not yet formed a unified conclusion.This article draws on macroeconomic theories,constructs a theoretical model framework,and analyzes the internal mechanism of the RMB exchange rate affecting China's resident consumption structure.Theoretical analysis shows that the impact of exchange rate on the consumption structure is mainly through the following three channels:exchange rate transmission channel,employment and income channel,and wealth effect channel.The three channels are interconnected and restrict each other,affecting the consumption structure.With the development of economy,China's residents' income and consumption expenditures have all achieved significant growth.The information structure of the consumption structure has increased,people's consumption has become more reasonable,and the consumption structure has been upgraded.However,China's resident consumption structure has not yet undergone a fundamental change,there is still a lot of room for upgrading.In order to further study the three channels of exchange rate affecting the consumption structure and their respective actual influence effects,this paper uses the PVAR model to empirically test the results obtained by the theoretical model.The results show that the exchange rate has a positive impact on the consumption structure in exchange rate transmission channel,employment and income channel.The appreciation of the RMB will bring about the upgrading of the consumption structure of urban residents in China through the above channels.The wealth effect channel will cause the deterioration of the consumption structure,but the impact is not significant.This is because there are specific differences between our country and western developed countries.Many markets in our country are inconsistent with the model assumptions.The RMB exchange rate mainly acts on the consumption structure through exchange rate transmission channel,employment and income channel.The appreciation of the RMB will promote the consumption structure of urban residents in China to become more advanced.This article provides valuable policy advice on how to properly deal with the relationship between exchange rates and the national economy,especially the consumption structure.