Trade Influence Factors And Development Potentials Of China With Countries Along The Belt And Road

As soon as the "One Belt and One Road"(including "the Silk Road Economic Belt "and" the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road")strategy was proposed,it immediately gets high attention from the theoretic and the social circles,and causes strong reverberations in the international society.China is trying to promote mutual economic and trade cooperation with the countries along the "One Belt One Road".Under this background studying bilateral trade influencing factors and calculating trade potential between China and the countries along the "One Belt One Road" are of great theoretical and practical significance.This paper selects the bilateral trade and related influence factors of panel data from 2009 to 2013 between China and 42 countries the "the countries along the ".Firstly it analyzes the basic trade pattern,and uses the hubness measurement index and trade intensity index to measure states of trade dependence and relations between China and the countries along the "One Belt One Road";employs the economics theory to research transportation costs,trade facilitation,regional trade agreements how to affect international trade flows.Secondly this paper utilizes the constant market share model(CMS)to break down the bilateral export trade growth power and make a comparison analysis between China and the countries along the line.Furthermore on the basis of the basic trade gravity model the paper expands the bilateral exchange rate,OFDI,tariff,trade facilitation,openness to trade,trade dependence,trade intensity,regional trade agreements and common boundary variables successively empirically testing the influence factors of the export trade,import trade,bilateral trade volume between China and the countries along the "One Belt One Road",and grouping bilateral trade volume of "the Silk Road Economic Belt"and" the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road",and hereby puts forward targeted policy suggestions according to these factors.Finally adopting every gravity model of optimal fitting equation respectively to calculate export trade,import trade and grouping bilateral trade potential,and divide the trade potential type.This paper's main conclusions are as follows:(1)the trade interdependence degree is high,the bilateral trade relationship closely,and have great differences among the different countries along the route;(2)bilateral export trade growth power factor difference are obvious between China and the countries along the line;(3)the export trade,import trade,bilateral trade volume and grouping's influencing factors are distinctly different;(4)the trade of China with the countries should be expanded,and bilateral trade has not yet been fully excavate potential.This paper put forward the corresponding policy recommendations at last.