A Comparative Analysis Of Trade Potentials And Their Influencing Factors Between Sino-Japan And The Countries Along The "Belt And Road"

Since China joined the WTO in 2001,its foreign trade has developed rapidly.The scale of trade has increased from 509.8 billion US dollars at the beginning of the WTO accession to 4105.0 billion US dollars in 2017,and 8.1 times in 17 years,making foreign trade an important force to promote national economic growth.At present,the global economic growth is weak and the trend of counter-globalization is intensifying,under this background,the implementation of the "Belt and Road" Initiative and the active exploration of emerging trade markets along the line have become an important strategy for China responding to the challenge of trade protectionism and maintaining its stable development of foreign trade.Practice has proved that strengthening cooperation and exchanges between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road" is of great significance for further enhancing the level and quality of China's opening up and promoting its overall trade development.Under the current international situation,Japan is also facing the severe challenges brought about by anti-globalization measures such as unilateralism.With the smooth progress of the "Belt and Road" Initiative,some Japanese companies have begun to participate in it and have gained a lot of benefits,which makes Japan realize that taking the "One Belt,One Road" express train will bring more opportunities for its economic development.Therefore,study the trade potential,trade efficiency and its influencing factors between China,Japan and the countries along the"Belt and Road" is of great theoretical an practical value on expanding the scale of China's import and export,optimizing its trade structure,strengthening the cooperation between China and Japan in the third-party market,in which they can achieve tripartite win-win outcomes.This paper conducts empirical research on trade potential based on background introduction,literature review and current situation analysis.On the one hand,the literature review section summarizes the current research on Japan's study about "Belt and Road"Initiative and the comparative analysis of trade between China,Japan and the countries along the "Belt and Road",and explores areas that still need to be improved and deepened.On the other hand,this part also summarizes the literature on the measurement methods of trade potential and trade efficiency and its related influencing factors,which provides empirical support for model building of this paper.The current status analys is based on the trade data of the countries along the "Belt and Road" between China and Japan in 2006-2017,and detailed statistical analysis and comparative analysis is made from three levels of total amount,regional arrangement and product structure.At the same time,according to the trade level,trade status and development trend of the countries along the"Belt and Road",the characteristics of trade are summarized,this has laid the analytical foundation for the study of trade potential and trade efficiency.The empirical research part adopts the stochastic frontier gravity model and the trade non-efficiency model,and carries out one-step regression analysis on the total and product levels.The empirical results show that the per capita GDP of China and Japan and the countries along the "Belt and Road",and the population of the "Belt and Road" countries can all contribute to bilateral trade,and the degree of influence on trade of various types of products is different.The total population of China and the geographical distance between China,Japan and the "Belt and Road" countries have a significant negative impact on the increase in trade flows,and the number of chinese population also has inhibitory effect on the trade of its resource-based manufactured goods and medium-technology goods.The common language and borders have a significant positive traction,and the landlocked environment will have an adverse impact on bilateral trade.From the perspective of trade inefficiency factors,the signing of a free trade agreement will help improve trade efficiency between China,Japan and countries along the "Belt and Road".As far as the customs and port conditions of the the"Belt and Road" countries concerned,the higher level of tariff barriers is still an important factor hindering the trade between China,Japan and countries along the "Belt and Road",but the higher efficiency of import customs clearance can make up to a certain extent.Good infrastructure quality plays an important role in improving the trade efficiency level of China,Japan and countries along the "Belt and Road".However,the Internet penetration rate and the liner transport connectivity index have little impact on the trade efficiency of the two countries.At the same time,the mitigation effect of currency freedom on the inefficiency of trade between China,Japan and the countries along the "Belt and Road" has not been fully released.Specific to the industry level,higher R&D investment levels in countries along the "Belt and Road" can alleviate trade inefficiency and have the greatest mitigation effect on technical products.The degree of government integrity and its regulatory level can promote the trade efficiency,however,considering that most of the sample countries are turbulent during the observation period,their impact on the trade efficiency of various products of the two countries is far less than the impact of R&D investment level.In general,the degree of currency freedom and urbanization can also alleviate trade inefficiency,but the impact of products in each category of the two countries is not significant.Based on the research results,this paper puts forward policy recommendations from four perspectives of economy,trade,industry and Japanese experience for the trade status and existing problems between China,Japan and the countries along the "Belt and Road".Accelerating China's economic transformation and upgrading,increasing the depth of trade cooperation,expanding international cooperation space,enhancing independent innovation capabilities,and reshaping core competitive advantages can all promote the optimization of trade structure and trade quality between China and the countries along the "Belt and Road".According to the trade structure characteristics of China and the different regions along the "Belt and Road",learn from the experience and lessons of Japan's trade with the"Belt and Road" countries,take measures to further improve trade efficiency,and this will ultimately promote trade potential that between China and countries along the "Belt and Road" released.