Research On The Location Optimization Of Central Warehouse And Pre-Warehouse For Fresh E-commerce Based On Demand Forecast

In recent years,with the rapid development of e-commerce and cold chain logistics,people are more and more keen to buy fresh food through the Internet.In 2019,the transaction scale of China's fresh e-commerce market has reached 322.5 billion yuan.However,fresh e-commerce enterprises are facing huge cost pressure while ushering in a golden development period.The high loss rate of fresh food and the high cost of cold chain logistics system make it difficult for fresh e-commerce enterprises to make profits.For this reason,fresh e-commerce enterprises are actively exploring new cold chain logistics modes,of which the "central warehouse + pre-warehouse" cold chain logistics system can effectively solve the problem that it is difficult to give consideration to both enterprise cost and fresh quality,helping enterprises realize cost reduction and efficiency increase.Based on the logistics demand forecast of fresh e-commerce enterprises,this paper studies the location problem of its central warehouse and pre-warehouse in the city.The main work is summarized as follows:(1)Starting from the logistics mode of fresh e-commerce enterprises,the paper focuses on the analysis of the characteristics and distribution process of the "central warehouse + pre warehouse" mode,summarizes the significance of logistics demand forecast and location research,and on this basis,forms the research idea of the full text in combination with relevant theoretical research at home and abroad.(2)According to the influencing factors of the logistics demand of fresh e-commerce enterprises,a logistics demand forecasting index system is constructed,and grey GM(1,1)model and BP neural network model are used to forecast the logistics demand of fresh ecommerce enterprises.(3)Based on the prediction of enterprise logistics demand,the paper uses AHP and combines the factors of natural environment,infrastructure,cost and operating environment to establish the evaluation level,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to determine the optimal location of the central warehouse.(4)According to the different rate of food spoilage,the three-level damage cost of fresh food is calculated by category.Considering the constraints such as time window and handling capacity of the pre-warehouse,the location model of the pre-warehouse with the lowest total cost as the goal is constructed,and the genetic algorithm is designed to solve the problem.(5)Taking M fresh e-commerce company as an example,on the basis of logistics demand forecast,the location plan of M fresh e-commerce company's central warehouse and pre-warehouse in Beijing is determined,which proves the effectiveness of the model and algorithm.