Research On Risk Management Of ERP Projects Based On Bayesian Network

Under the background of “Made in China 2025” and “industry 4.0”,ERP,as an advanced management information system,integrates all production resources of the enterprise and links all information of the enterprise value chain.It is an indispensable part in the process of enterprise informatization to help enterprises realize intelligent production.However,ERP project is a huge and complex system engineering with long implementation cycle,high cost and wide coverage.There are lots of uncertainties in the implementation process.In order to improve the success rate of ERP project implementation,the paper establishes a set of scientific and reasonable risk management index system of ERP project and designs a risk management model of ERP project based on Bayesian network to explore how to realize sustainable and dynamic risk management in ERP project.Firstly,from an enterprise perspective,the paper analyses the implementation process and main activities in ERP project,identifies the main risk and risk elements in every stage,and then,with the help of experts,gets a scientific and reasonable risk management index system of ERP project.Next,the paper applies Bayesian network to ERP project risk management model.The model is divided into five sub-models: risk identification,analysis,evaluation,response and monitoring.Risk identification sub-model refers to identifying potential risks of the project,and generating a risk list.The risk of the list would be the nodes of Bayesian network.Risk analysis sub-model is to analyze the causal relationship between risks,and obtain the Bayesian network structure based on expert knowledge or data learning.Risk assessment sub-model is to input risk occurrence probability statistics into the network structure,to learn parameters,generate risk occurrence probability Bayesian network of ERP projects,and then classify and prioritize risks according to the probability distribution of risk nodes in the Bayesian network.The risk response and risk monitoring sub-model would prevent and control the risks according to the results of risk assessment.As the project goes on,the risk Bayesian network would keep to update,optimize and adjust.Finally,the paper applies the model to the ERP project of XH hospital.And through the practice succussfully verifies the feasibility and practicability of the risk management model of ERP project based on Bayesian network.