A Comparative Study Of Mobile Payment Diffusion Based On Bass Model And Cellular Automata Model

With the rapid development of economy and Internet technology,a new form of payment is changing people's way of life.It has more and more applications in the online and offline market with its rich payment scene and convenient payment method.Mobile payment as the first choice for people's daily consumption,mobile payment has brought huge profits to businesses and third party payment enterprises.The mobile payment market in China is developing rapidly,how to layout the market and occupy the first opportunity,which is also the reason for the study of the diffusion law of the China's mobile payment users and the factors affecting the proliferation of mobile payment users.It has great significance for the third-party payment enterprises to develop new markets.In order to explore the diffusion law of mobile payment users and the factors that influence mobile payment diffusion,this paper studies the diffusion of mobile payment from both macro and micro aspects.The models used in this paper took into account the external factors(such as advertising)and internal factors(such as interpersonal communication),and verified the accuracy of the model through the collection of user data,and predicted the future mobile payment user data,which is basically consistent with the general law of evolution.The paper also considers that the market scale will expand with the development of economy and the progress of science and technology,therefore,the dynamic market potential function model is established according to the scale of the mobile phone users,and then the Bass expansion model is determined with the Bass model,and the Bass expansion model was tested with the mobile payment user data,and the results were very good.Through the analysis and comparison of several models,we get the following conclusion: the diffusion of innovations is mainly based on interpersonal communication,but advertising is indispensable in the necessary time and phase.When the third-party payment enterprise is expanding the new markets,whether it is the overseas market,or the domestic suburb or rural area,advertising and other mass media must take certain marketing means to promote when the mobile payment have just entered the new market,so that some people will try to use mobile phone to pay.Over time,mobile payments will continue to spread through interpersonal communication.This also makes more and more marketing staff more and more interested in the power of Word-of-mouth,explore good marketing methods.