| With the development of communication technology and the changes of the market structure, the mobile Internet has become an inevitable trend in the evolution of mobile networks, mobile data services emerged to become the major carriers and Internet companies cannot ignore the battlefield. In order to avoid becoming the pipeline provider, operators need to change their tactics and introduced various types of mobile data services. In addition to voice services and through a network of mobile operators, mobile data services provide basic information to pass through the service infrastructure added to all the business of the customer value, can also be referred to as mobile Internet services, mobile value-added services. For enterprises, to know the users’data of mobile data services in the market and in the future development is of great significance.Based on technological innovation diffusion theory and its main model, an empirical study of users of mobile data services data is studied. We mainly selected representative Gompertz model, Bass model and the contigent diffusion model (including the two-layer and three-layer), used the world’s leading non-linear curve data fitting software lstopt, predicted the numbers of future users of mobile data services based on the derived parameters. But as mobile data services just entered a more mature stage, the study period is very short, temporarily it is unable to verify the predicted data. On the other hand, simply knowing the future development of mobile data services is not enough, how to take advantage of the limited data derived more intelligence, we used the model based on Bass model and the user’s network, the same data fitting results reveals the user’s network structure, the user can get the current business by the effects of external influences and internal parameters, thus effectively guide the adjustment of the carriers the reallocation of resources and marketing strategies. |
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