A Cellular Automata Model Of Multiple Generations Products Diffusion

With the further development of electronic information technology, a large number of electronic information products such as computers and mobile phones appeared in electronic market. As the representative of multiple generations products, mobile phone is different from the general innovative products, and also known as partial innovative products. Multiple generations products have some characteristics such as:performance is significantly improved, increasingly frequent replacement, short product life cycle, product market demand is difficult to grasp, etc. Under the background of information age, the enterprise is facing the cruel market competition. Thus exploring the diffusion rule of upgrading innovative products is very important for the distributors and manufacturers.The Research on innovation diffusion has a long time. Until the 1960s, scholars mainly researched for the theory of innovation diffusion. Then the main research of direction was taken into macroscopic and microscopic model innovation diffusion. Classical macro model-Bass model has a huge contribution to the study of the innovation diffusion. However, due to the limitation of the Bass model itself, since the 1990s, researchers began to experiment with computer simulation techniques and study the cellular automata microeconomic perspective.After nearly 20 years development, innovation diffusion based on cellular automata made great achievements. But due to the lack of micro level data, the previous cellular automata simulation models either ignore the empirical evidence, or lack of empirical simulation conclusions. Based on previous studies, we establish a innovation diffusion cellular automata model, which is close to reality. In this model, consumers can independently adjust the affecting weight. of their neighbors. This model can better overcome the difference between the theoretical model and microscopic data. What’s more, it can analysis and empirical research by the reality data of the iPhone sales. This paper mainly in the following research:In first step, we build a cellular automaton model of self-regulation or self-learning. In order to accurately describe the consumer decision-making process, the model quantify the influence of "the neighbors’Weight", making the surrounding neighbors influence on central element cell is no longer fixed. Center cell will adjust their neighbors’effect weight according to the surrounding neighbors previous behavior. They will increase those neighbors’weight who had got a "correct behaviour", and reducing those neighbors’weight who had got a "wrong behaviour".Thus this model has become an independent regulation of cellular automata. Thus the model has become an independent regulation cellular automata. Combined with previous studies and the characteristics of replacement products, we take product technology innovation factor, the impact of advertisin, social rate of technological development, product prices, personal income, aversion, physical damage and other factors into the model. By quantifing these factors,we quantify these factors and include them in the consumer preferences value "Li" and dislikes value "H", and then build a complete simulation model.After completing build model, we get the following conclusions:(1) Those people who are easy to change perceptions about their neighbors, are more difficult to accept new products; Vice is easy to accept the new product. (2) the more scientific and technological innovation the upgrading products includes, the products spread faster. But instead of high scientific and technological innovation will hinder the spread of the later generations of products. (3)If the science and technology innovation of a generation product innovation is low, this series of products won’t completely lose the market. But if three or more generations product’s science and technology innovation are low, it is possible to completely lose the market. (4) The early market is more sensitive for science and technology innovation of new products, and after mid market response to the product’s science and technology innovation more numbness. (5)By the same rate of science and technology development, shorter product update cycle, the faster the diffusion; by the same interval of updating cycle, smaller science and technology development speed is, the faster the spread of the product. If we want to get a quick products diffusion, update cycle frequency must be along with the development of science and technology. (6)The low physical damage and physical damage increment contributes to product diffusion and market stability, but higher physical damage and its increment will greatly inhibit proliferation.Finally, through the simulated model of apple iPhone, comparing the previous iPhone quarterly sales around the world, we found the simulation sales in accordance with the actual sales. The results of model simulation have been achieved ideal. By analyzing the simulation data, also get the following conclusion:(1) On the market, the iPhone holdings is in rise gradually. (2)In the process of upgrading, the old iPhone will still be sold on the market for a period of time by price influence. New products and old products to make sales greatly ascend. As the product upgrading, with the price reduction old iPhone continues to exist in such a short time. But with the development of science and technology, the product finally eliminated by the market. (4)With the product diffusion, the stimulating effect of new products will become more and more obvious. After the wave of sales, sales will collapse until the next update products were taken into the market. The tidal fluctuations of sales will be more obvious in the future.