Econometric Analysis Of The Diffusion Effect Of China's ICT Innovation

Throughout the development of China's Information and Communication Technology(ICT)industry,from the stage of parallel development of fixed telephone and radio and television in the 1990s,to the stage of rapid parallel development of mobile and broadband in the 21st century,and to the official commercial use of 3G in China in 2009,China officially entered the'fast track' of integrated development of mobile,broadband and TV.Continuous innovation,diffusion and integration of ICT have given rise to the‘four new economies'marked by 'new technologies,new industries,new forms of business and new models',which have penetrated into all fields of the national economy and further promoted the development of industrial informatization,agricultural modernization and intelligent service industry.As the communication technology,information technology and terminal hardware technology rapid iteration,depth of fusion between industry,it release new driving forces for the development of the whole industry,and give full play to its pioneering,strategic,multiplier and radiative role in the national economy.it is increasingly important for the development of the national economy,and further promote the transformation and upgrading of the national economy.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to study the diffusion effect of ICT innovation.Applying the spread theory and the theory of quantitative economy,and adopting the method of econometric analysis,this paper explores the internal logic and measurement method of the"network paradigm" of ICT innovation diffusion centering on the spread effect and driving effect of innovation diffusion.Firstly,the application of spread theory puts forward the driving mode of ICT innovation diffusion,that is,the innovation behavior of the innovation subject and the imitation behavior of the innovation object are completed together,and puts forward the"four driving forces " of ICT innovation diffusion spread from the supply side and the demand side,Namely,the technological innovation and integrated innovation based on the supply side become the new driving force,and the commercial pattern innovation and demand evolution based on the demand side become the new engine for the innovation diffusion of ICT.Based on the perspective of ICT diffusion path,‘three paths'are proposed,Namely,the hierarchical spread,the gradient spread and the time-space spread.Second,the quantitative economic theory and spatial econometric analysis method is used,driving effect of ICT innovation diffusion is put forward,and the dynamic panel data model of SAR is applied research and measure the ICT driving effect,under the premise of comprehensive consideration of government regulation,location resources,regional economy,industrial resource supply and user consumption expenditure and space-time effect.The research and econometric analysis methods of spread effect and driving effect of ICT innovation diffusion provide important support and guarantee for empirical analysis.Based on the 'S-shaped' spread theory,this paper conducts exploratory research on Bass model in combination with the characteristics of ICT industry,and proposes that non-cumulative Bass model is more suitable for ICT innovation diffusion research.Based on the "S-shaped" curve spread theory of diffusion,this paper conducts exploratory research on Bass model in combination with the characteristics of ICT industry,and proposes that non-cumulative Bass model is more suitable to measure the driving mode of ICT innovation diffusion,that is,innovation behavior of innovation subject and imitation behavior of innovation object.This paper discusses the driving mode of innovation diffusion based on the two perspectives of innovation subject's innovation behavior driving and innovation object's imitation behavior driving.In addition,in terms of model estimation methods,this paper selects a variety of modern intelligent iterative algorithms for fitting estimation of non-cumulative Bass model,and the results show that the genetic algorithm has better estimation effect.Finally,from the overall,business types,regional economic,urban level,administrative provinces and 288 Cities above prefecture level,using the non-cumulative Bass model analyzes the differences of innovation drive and imitating drive,and calculating the annual innovation diffusion rate in 288 cities.Finally diffusion rate is used as the explained variable to study the driving effect of ICT innovation diffusion.The quantitative economic theory and spatial measurement analysis methods are applied.Based on spatial distance weight matrix,the panel data dynamic SAR model is built to study the driving effect of ICT innovation diffusion and take time and space effect factors into consideration.This model is a step forward compared with the previous static panel data econometric model,further enriches the research results in this field,draws more objective and scientific conclusions,and reveals the basic law of the driving effect of ICT innovation diffusion in China.The driving factors of it include 1 0 factors from four dimensions of location resources,regional economy,industrial resource supply and user consumption expenditure,and the hidden factors such as ICT technology evolution,government regulatory reform and industry restructuring are taken into account.Matlab software was used to estimate the parameters of the dynamic SAR model by quasi-maximum likelihood method to find out the driving force of explanatory variable on ICT innovation diffusion.At the same time,the dynamic SAR model not only analyzes the short-term effect and long-term spillover effect of the influencing factors,but also conducts exploratory analysis on the intercity inflow and outflow effect of the influencing factors.In addition,the spread effect and driving effect difference of innovation diffusion are further analyzed from two aspects of ICT business type and city level.Therefore,the research method of ICT innovation diffusion driving effect has certain enlightenment significance for spatial econometrics to expand to other fields.Based on the above research,combined with the characteristics of the ICT industry and its future evolution and development,this paper applies the main conclusions of the research on ICT innovation diffusion effect and proposes seven policy suggestions from two aspects of'three spread effects' and 'four driving effects'.