Research On Early Warning Of Network Public Opinion In Social Conflict Events

With the rapid development of communication and computer technology,the Internet has forged a new public opinion transmission mechanism for our country.The Internet has greatly impacted the traditional media.It has become an important window to guide and understand the social and public feelings,and it can reflect social and public opinion more quickly and effectively.Social contradictions are different from general emergencies because of their characteristics of environmental complexity,evolutionary uncertainty,and group diffusion.Especially with the rapid expansion of network technology and Internet users,such incidents seriously affect social solidarity and stability.This paper will be based on China's national conditions,and predict public opinion on social conflicts.The motivation factors that influence the popularity of Internet public opinion,public opinion crisis level evaluation and public opinion coping strategies are taken as the research objects.This article focuses on the following aspects:(1)In view of the dynamic analysis of network public opinion of social conflict events,the internal and external power of public opinion crisis is explored.With the system dynamics as a tool,a dynamic model is built to reflect the mechanism of network public opinion on social contradictory events.Through sensitivity analysis,the main factors affecting the public opinion situation in the network are discovered.The simulation results are analyzed,providing 7 references for government and related departments to deal with and guide public opinion crisis.(2)According to the main factors that affect the situation of social public opinion,we try to select appropriate indicators to establish a social public opinion crisis level evaluation system.Combined with the existing literature,internal source power and external power,14 final indexes are determined.Through communication and interview with 7 experts,the index weight is determined by the neural network toolbox of Matlab simulation.(3)The network public opinion of six typical social contradictions in three hot spots of social moral dispute,social violence and the protection of underage and disadvantaged groups is summarized in detail.Through the case study,the inductive reasoning method is used to explore the evolution law of the network public opinion on social contradictory events,and the evolution law of the network public opinion of the social contradictory events is obtained.The threshold of the two key points of the outbreak and the rest of the public opinion crisis is discussed,and the characteristics of the various stages of the evolution law are analyzed.(4)Based on the evolution rule of network public opinion situation of social contradictions events,we determine the early warning level of Internet public opinion.First,put forward effective strategies for crisis response according to the characteristics of each stage.Then,from the analysis of the subjects,the government,netizens and online media were separately proposed to respond to the Internet public opinion crisis of social contradictions.By studying the main dynamic factors affecting the heat of network public opinion,selecting early warning indicators,constructing the evaluation system of crisis level,discovering the evolution law of network public opinion,and judging the early warning level of network public opinion,the practicability of network public opinion evaluation system and the effectiveness of network public opinion early warning are improved.Provide ideas and methods for the government and related departments to deal with and guide social conflicts.