Analysis On The Evolution Of Internet Public Opinion Of Sudden Natural Disasters And Research On Guiding Strategies

China is in a critical period of social transformation,and there are still many loopholes in the prevention and control of sudden natural disasters.Especially in recent years,geological disasters such as "Maduo earthquake in Qinghai","typhoon fireworks landing" and "Severe Rainstorm in Henan" and typhoon floods have occurred one after another,which has disappointed the people in the current situation in the field of sudden natural disaster prevention and control.Sudden natural disasters are related to people’s personal safety.Once they happen on the Internet,they will cause an uproar.Analyzing the evolution of network opinion of sudden natural disaster events is useful for the govt.to agitate network opinion scientifically and forestall the prevalence of network opinion risk.This paper aims to study the six constituent elements of the evolution of network public opinion: subject behavior,object behavior,ontology behavior,media behavior,effect and environment,and analyze the operation mechanism and evolution mode of network public opinion;This paper analyzes the influencing factors of the evolution of network public opinion,and holds that the dynamic factors affecting the evolution of public opinion include the role of sudden natural disasters,the role of Internet users,the role of media environment and the role of government work;After the occurrence of sudden natural disasters,we should also analyze the characteristics of the evolution of network public opinion.After clarifying these quantities and factors,it will be conducive to our system dynamics modeling.Based on this,this paper studies the evolution of network popular opinion of unforeseen natural disasters as a system,analyzes the most factors moving the evolution of network popular opinion of unforeseen natural disasters,explores the inner behavior logic of the evolution of network popular opinion of unforeseen natural disasters,explores the internal behavior logic of the evolution of network public opinion of sudden natural disasters,and uses the method of system dynamics to model according to the principle of system dynamics,Build the evolution analysis model of sudden natural disaster network public opinion based on system dynamics,analyze the evolution law and stage of sudden natural disaster network public opinion,and grasp the relationship between netizens’ public opinion behavior and sudden natural disaster events,so as to provide theoretical support and practical guidance for improving the government’s supervision ability and media guidance level.This paper selects the "Henan rainstorm" sudden natural disaster event as the research case,and uses Python software to crawl the data with relevant keywords on the microblog.Due to the huge amount of data,the author selects the representative microblog during the outbreak of public opinion as the object of this study,and after processing,a total of 1843 valid data are obtained.The collection,acquisition and analysis of these data have laid a solid foundation for establishing the theoretical model of system dynamics.According to the case,the evolution stage of network public opinion of sudden natural disaster events is divided,and then combined with the current situation of relevant network public opinion guidance,it provides decision-making concepts for the government’s steering and management of network vox populi and therefore the media’s steering of network vox populi.Finally,the paper lists the shortcomings of China’s network public opinion in response to sudden natural disasters exposed in the event,divides the four stages of network public opinion crisis management of sudden natural disasters based on 4R crisis theory,and puts forward five improvement suggestions based on reality,timely disclose information according to the analysis results and protect the public’s right to know;Mainstream media actively undertake social responsibility and play a supervisory role;Take the initiative to set topics and build an official public opinion field;Strengthen steerage and provides full play to the positive role of opinion leaders;Integrate efforts to understand the linkage between ancient media and new media,and put forward suggestions and Development Countermeasures for relevant government departments and reporting media in five aspects,in order to assist the govt.improve the response ability of network opinion crisis of fulminant natural disaster events.