Analysis Of The Impact Of China's Population Age Structure Changes On Saving Rate

Since the 12 th five-year plan,China's total population has been rising,and the number of newborns has continued to rise.However,China's labor force is declining,the number of elderly people with weak labor capacity is rising,and the proportion of old people is 13.26% in 2014,indicating that China is in the aging society.The population characteristics of low birth rate and low death rate have led to the aging of China.With the rapid growth of China's economy and the transformation of population age structure in recent decades,the aging problem has become the key factor affecting the household saving rate.China has a large population base and a large population.The impact of population age structure on the savings rate is obvious.Therefore,it is of great significance to study the relationship between population age structure and saving rate to reduce its negative effect on saving rate.Firstly,this article analysis the diamond model on the theoretical,and according to the reality to join the factor of pensions,the empirical analysis part use children's dependency ratio,elderly dependency ratio,per capita disposable income and CPI,real interest rates,and per capita pension level data from 2002-2014,using the data of static and dynamic panel data and FGLS analysis method,analyzed the impact of the above several variables on China's overall and various regions savings rate.We can get conclusion: from the point of view of the country as a whole,the first phase of the saving rate,per capita disposable income,real interest rates,the consumer price index and savings rates are positive related,and the two dependency ratio and per capita pension level is negative correlation with the savings rate,previous savings rate,per capita disposable income,per capita pension level raised and children's dependency ratio affect the saving rate more,the influence of elderly dependency ratio,the real interest rate and CPI on the saving rate is quite.From the analysis of the various regions: the eastern and western regions of the children's dependency ratio,per capita pension level,real interest rates and consumer price index effect on saving rate is more apparent,central and western rigions of the elderly dependency ratio affect the savings rate more,and per capita disposable income of four areas affect saving effect is obvious.Then,in order to predict the implementation of "two children" policy in the next 15 years after the changes in the savings rate in our country,this article use the international population forecast software(PADIS)estimate the children and the elderly dependency ratio,and then put them into the system GMM model to predict the next 15 years in our country's saving rate.Over the next 15 years,China's savings rate will decline,there will be a significant decline,and will remain at a lower level thereafter.Finally,the paper puts forward corresponding policy Suggestions based on the results.