| According to the UN's criteria for the division of population aging,China entered an aging society as early as 2000.In recent years,the aging of the population has become more and more serious,the dependency ratio of the population has entered an upward path,and the first demographic dividend has gradually disappeared.According to the life cycle theory,the consumer's saving behavior shows a trend of rising first and then falling with the increase of age.When the elderly population in society increases and the working age population decreases,it is bound to have an important impact on the resident saving rate.On the other hand,China's basic old-age insurance is continuously improving and is evolving towards the direction of covering the whole people,coordinating urban and rural areas as a whole,ensuring moderate and sustainable security.Residents' insured behavior will inevitably change the current disposable income level and the risk expectation for the future,thus affecting the current consumption and savings behavior.However,changes in the household savings rate will further affect China's future economic development.Therefore,it is particularly important to explore the impact of population aging and basic old-age insurance on the resident savings rate.First of all,the relevant literature at home and abroad is combed,and then the relevant theoretical basis on population aging,basic old-age insurance and resident saving rate is introduced.And from the burden effect of population aging,life effect,substitution effect of basic old-age insurance,welfare effect and income redistribution effect,this paper analyzes the impact mechanism of the two on the resident saving rate,and puts forward the research hypothesis based on this.Then in the empirical analysis,using the panel data of 29 provinces,cities and autonomous regions from 2001 to 2017,dynamic panel estimation is carried out by usingtwo-stage differential GMM and system GMM,and the robustness of the model is tested.The empirical results show that the residents' saving behavior has a great inertia,and the current residents' saving rate will be affected by the previous residents' saving behavior habits.Without considering the basic old-age insurance,the elderly dependency ratio has a significant inhibitory effect on the resident saving rate,while the life expectancy has a promoting effect on the resident saving rate.After considering the basic old-age insurance,the burden effect of population aging and the influence direction of life effect on the resident saving rate will not change,but the effect is weakened,and the basic old-age insurance has a significant crowding-out effect on the resident saving rate.In addition,considering that savings come directly from income,the impact path mechanism of population aging and basic old-age insurance on household savings rate may depend on changes in per capita income,so non-dynamic threshold panel model is used for estimation analysis.The results show that the elderly dependency ratio will have different effects on the household saving rate due to the growth rate of per capita income.When the growth rate of household income is at a relatively high level,the effect of population aging on the household saving rate is relatively small.According to the level of economic development,the provincial panel data of the whole country are further divided into three parts: east,west and east.FGLS method is used for empirical regression and comparative analysis.Based on the results of empirical analysis,the impact of population aging and basic old-age insurance on the resident saving rate shows regional differences.Finally,based on the theoretical and empirical results of this paper,the research conclusions of this paper are summarized and analyzed,and some targeted policy suggestions are put forward from the aspects of population aging,basic old-age insurance and social policies respectively. |
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