The Analysis Of The Effects Of The Changes In Population Structure On Household Saving Rate

The reform and opening up began in the late 1970s made China’s economy keep a rapid growth, which was known as the miracle of the growth of world economic. With the same period China began to implement the one-child policy which led to the significant changes of China’s population structure. The saving rate, one of the important ways by which demographic changes affecting economic growth, had also significant growth over the less than forty years. The rapid economic development caused by the reform and opening up, the change of China’s population structure caused by population policy and the rising of household saving rate took place over the same period, which indicated China’s population structure may have significant influence on economic growth by the way of household saving rate. So this thesis focuses on how the changes of population structure affect the household saving rate in China.Based on the description of the current situation of China’s population structure and savings, this thesis handles the provincial panel data of 1989-2014 with the methods of panel calibration standard error (PCSE) and feasible generalized least squares (FGLS). It examines the influence of some key indexes of the population structure change such as the dependency ratio, sex ratio and life expectancy on the household saving rate at the national leveL At the same time, it examines the relationship between population structure change and household saving rate in the four different areas respectively divided by the policy fertility rate, which not only makes a contrast with the results of the national level, but also reflects the importance of one-child policy in the demographic transition of China. Empirical results indicate that the decrease of children’s dependency ratio leads to the decline of household saving rate while the increase of the old dependency ratio leads to a drop in household saving rate from the point of long-term and dynamic; sex ratio has a certain influence on the saving rate in China but there are differences between different areas; the extension of life expectancy improves the household saving rate; by the comparison of the four areas, the implementation of the one-child policy accelerates the changes of the population structure in China, which affects the change of the household saving rate; China’s household savings have strong inertia and the development of our country’s economy and social also plays a very important role in affecting the household savings. Finally according to the characteristics of population structure in China at present while combined with the empirical results and the future expectation in the population structure in China, this thesis puts forward relevant policy suggestions.