Multivariate Analysis Of Prognostic Factors In Walled-off Pancreatic Necrosis After Endoscopic Ultrasound-guided Drainage

Objectives: Investigate the prognostic factors of walled-off pancreatic necrosis(WOPN)after endoscopic ultrasound-guided drainage.Methods: In this study,we retrospectively collected and analyzed the clinical data of patients with WOPN performed endoscopic ultrasound-guided drainage from November 2011 to March 2018 in the Shengjing Hospital of China Medical University.Statistical single factor and multiple factors method are used to evaluate the endoscopic ultrasound-guided drainage.Results: Totally 86 patients were included in the study,average age was 45.16±16.04,50 of these were male,46 were female.Multivariate analysis demonstrated that more debris in necrosis(>30%)increased the cost(OR=3.421;95%CI:1.342,8.721;P=0.010);drainage with metal stents prolonged stay in hospital(OR=2.997;95%CI:1.088,8.252;P=0.034),female was risk factor with reintervention(OR=2.571;95%CI:1.047,6.317;P=0.039),hospital stay(OR=2.834;95%CI:1.136,7.066;P=0.036),complications(OR=3.472;95%CI:5.216,9.913;P=0.02),recurrence(OR=10.08;95%CI:1.146,88.648;P=0.037).The duration of WOPN(<30d or?30d),age(<45 or ?45)and initial direct endoscopic necrosectomy(DEN)were less irrelevant with the prognostic indexes(P>0.05).Conclusions: The volume of debris,type of stents and sex are risk factors in WOPN after endoscopic ultrasound-guided drainage,particularly for the female patients.