The Correlations Between Children With Asthmatic Diseases And Meteorological Factors,environmental Factors In Suzhou

Objective:To understand the impacts of meteorological factors and environmental factors on children with asthmatic diseases and explore the relationships between children with asthmatic diseases and meteorological factors,environmental factors.Method:The mean concentrations of air pollutants(PM2.5,PM10,NO2,SO2,CO,O3),meteorological factors(monthly average temperature,monthly average humidity,monthly precipitation,monthly sunshine hours,monthly average wind speed)and clinical data of children hospitalized with asthmatic diseases in respiratory department of Children's Hospital of Soochow University from 2013 to 2017 were collected.The results of multiple pathogen detection of nasopharyngeal secretion were also collected.The meteorological factors and environmental factors were obtained from local weather bureau and environmental monitoring centre.The relationships between children with asthmatic diseases and meteorological factors,environmental factors were analyzed using binary correlation and multivariate regression analysis.Result:A total of 3255 hospitalized children with asthmatic diseases(Bronchiolitis,Asthmatic bronchitis,Acute attack of bronchial asthma,Pneumonia with asthmatic)in respiratory department of Children's Hospital Affiliated of Soochow University from 2013 to 2017 were enrolled,including 2286 male children(70.23%)and 969 female children(29.77%).The ratio of male to female was 2.36:1.The age range of children was from one month to fourteen years and five months old.The average age was 2.17 ± 1.85 years.The children with asthmatic diseases frequently present in infant less than 12 months old(1897/3255,58.28%).In terms of seasonal distribution,children with asthmatic diseases were often hospitalized in winter(1024/3255,31.46%).There were 2740 inpatients completed the multiple pathogen detection of nasopharyngeal secretion.The number of positive specimens with one or more pathogens detected was 795.The total positive rate was 29.01%.The top three pathogens were RSV(501,22.68%),HRV(336,15.21%),MP(252,11.41%).The highest monthly average temperature was in July in Suzhou from 2013 to 2017 and the lowest was in January;The highest monthly average humidity was in June and the lowest was in December;The highest monthly precipitation was in June,the lowest was in December;The highest monthly sunshine hours was in July,the lowest was in June;The highest monthly average wind speed was in May,the lowest was in December.The annual average concentrations of PM2.5 and NO2 in Suzhou from 2013 to 2017 were higher than the national standards of second-level of annual average concentration.The annual average concentrations of PM10 from 2013 to 2016 was higher than the national standards of second-level of annual average concentration.The annual average concentrations of SO2 from 2013 to 2015 were higher than the national standards of first-level of annual average concentration,while the concentrations in 2016 and 2017 did not exceed the first-level of the national standards.The annual average concentrations of O3 and CO from 2013 to 2017 were lower than the national standards of first-level of average concentration.The seasonal concentration variations of PM2.5,PM10 and SO2 in Suzhou from 2013 to 2017 were winter>spring>autumn>summer.The seasonal concentration variations of NO2 and CO were winter>autumn>spring>summer.The seasonal changes of O3 was summer>spring>autumn>winter.Binary correlation analysis showed that the number of hospitalized children with asthmatic diseases was negatively correlated with the monthly average temperature,the number of hospitalized children with asthmatic diseases was negatively correlated with the monthly precipitation,the number of hospitalized children with asthmatic diseases was positively correlated with PM2.5,the number of hospitalized children with asthmatic diseases was positively correlated with PM10,and the number of hospitalized children with asthmatic diseases was positively correlated with NO2.There was a positive correlation between the number of hospitalized children with asthmatic diseases and CO,and a negative correlation between the number of hospitalized children with asthmatic diseases and O3.Multivariate regression analysis showed that the number of hospitalized children with asthmatic diseases was negatively correlated with the average temperature,while the number of hospitalized children with asthmatic diseases was positively correlated with PM10.In this study,an auto regressive average sliding model based on meteorological factors was established.The results suggest that a predictive model of children with asthmatic diseases can be established based on temperature changes.In this study,an auto regressive average sliding model based on environmental factors was established.The results suggest that a predictive model of children with asthmatic diseases can be established based on the change of PM10,and the prediction effect is good.Conclusion:(1)RSV is one of the most important viruses and pathogens of children with asthmatic diseases in the Suzhou area,followed by HRV,and MP.(2)Meteorological factors and environmental factors are related to the epidemic of pathogens,and closely related to the number of hospitalized children with asthmatic diseases.(3)Meteorological factors and environmental factors can be used as early warning indicators for the occurrence of children with asthmatic diseases,and relevant prediction models can be established for clinical application.