Correlation Between Meteorological Factors And Daily Respiratory Emergency In Urumqi City

Objective:Through the analysis of the relationship between children's respiratory diseases,emergency visits and meteorological factors in a hospital in Urumqi City,to explore the effects of meteorological factors on children's hospital visits for respiratory diseases,to provide theoretical basis for the prevention of respiratory diseases in children and the relevant departments to rational allocation of resources for the hospital.Methods:Collected data of outpatient and emergency visits in a 3A general hospital in Urumqi in January 2014-2016 December,and the daily meteorological data and air pollution monitoring data of Urumqi at the same time.First of all,according to the characteristics of children's respiratory diseases in Urumqi,we used the sum autoregressive moving average?ARIMA?model to analyze the incidence of respiratory diseases in children in Urumqi.The relative optimal ARIMA prediction model is established through the modeling process such as sequence stabilization,model identification,parameter estimation,model diagnosis and so on.The model was fitted by the reported monthly data of children's respiratory diseases,and the short-term incidence of children's respiratory diseases in Urumqi was predicted.And then to the children's respiratory system diseases emergency door visits to health effect indicators,using generalized additive model?GAM?analysis of time series data,the dummy variable effects of week effect and holiday effect on the basis of the relationship between the changes of meteorological factors and Urumqi children's respiratory system diseases outpatient attendances.Results:Firstly,A smooth test on the number of respiratory disease research,the results show that the sequence is a non-stationary time series,the logarithm of the original sequence and make an order difference and seasonal difference,of Urumqi city hospital children's respiratory system diseases to establish the product season model,through the model identification,parameter estimation.Model test to determine ARIMA?0,1,2??1,1,0?for the 12children's respiratory system diseases best prediction model.The results showed that the number of sick children in 2017 was the most in December.Compared with those in 2016,the number of patients was slightly reduced and the characteristics of the disease were seasonal distribution.Secondly,Meteorological factors,namely temperature,air pressure,relative humidity and wind speed change seasonally in a year.Pollutant factors are SO₂,NO₂ and PM₁₀.The number of children's respiratory diseases is higher in the winter day,and the daily medical treatment is reduced.Thirdly,By using the generalized additive model?GAM?time series data analysis,control of pollutant factors such as confounders,the fitting of the data and the model results show that the meteorological factors related to Urumqi city children's respiratory system disease,there are significant effects of daily average temperature,daily average air pressure,average relative humidity and average wind speed on the respiratory system diseases?P<0.05?,the relative risk of RR were 1.07,1.06,1.02,1.01.The temperature has a significant influence on the age.Daily average temperature,daily average air pressure,average daily relative humidity and daily average wind speed increased or decreased under optimal conditions.The delay days of children's respiratory diseases were 5 days,4 days,5 days and 4 days,respectively,so that the number of hospital visits increased.By using the fixed effect model,correction of pressure,humidity,wind speed,holiday effect and the SO₂ NO₂,PM₁₀0 NS?temperature|week 1-week5?,NS?temperature|weekend?spline function,the same correction of pressure,humidity and wind speed,the weekend effect,SO₂,NO₂,PM₁₀,NS?temperature|holiday?,NS?temperature|non holiday?spline function.The results show that the weekend effect was not statistically significant?P>0.05?,a statistically significant holiday effect?P<0.05?.Conclusion:The rate of risk of Urumqi meteorological factors can increase the population of children respiratory disease,through the analysis and research of the influence of Urumqi meteorological factors and respiratory diseases of children,according to the weather bureau issued a warning mechanism,the establishment of early warning system to the relevant departments,make measures for the 4 and 5 days in advance,a reasonable allocation of resources in manpower,physical financial resources.Further progress in reducing the incidence of respiratory diseases in children.