Epidemiological Characteristics Of HFMD Based On Meteorological Factors Establish A Predictive Model

Objectives:we want to analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hand,foot and mouth disease in Zhaotong City from 2014 to 2017,and understand the epidemic situation of hand,foot and mouth disease.we want to explore the relationship between meteorological factors and hand,foot and mouth disease.Based on meteorological factors,use Harvard risk index model to establish a predictive model for the risk of hand,foot and mouth diseaseMethods:The data of daly HFMD incidences in Zhaotong City and the local meteorological data from 2014 to 2017 were collected.We use the concentration and circular distribution methods to analyze the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease.Mapinfo was used to analyze the spatial distribuyion of hand,foot and mouth disease.Spearman correlation analysis and logistic regression were used to identify the meteorological risk factors for HFMD,and the risk prediction model incorporating these meteorological variables was developed based on Harvard disease risk index model.The performance of this model in predicting the risk of HFMD was assessed using the area under the ROC curve.Results:In 2014-2017,a total of 6661 cases of hand,foot and mouth disease were reported in Zhaotong City,the incidence rates were 28.74/100,000,18.02/100,000,50.71/100,000,25.77/100,000.Concentration analysis shows that the incidence of hand,foot and mouth disease in Zhaotong City has a strong seasonality.The circular distribution method shows that the peak incidence of hand-foot disease in Zhaotong City is May 16th,and the peak period in four years is between March 10th and July 25th.The epidemic period is between January 4th and September 29th.The peak period was not the same in four years(F=312.22,p<0.001).The vaccine-targeted strain EV71 has a strong seasonal M value of 0.86,the peak incidence day is May 10,and the peak period is April 21-June 1,respectively.The epidemic period is April 1.Day_June 21.Etiology:The pathogens of hand,foot and mouth in Zhaotong City are mainly EV71,CoxA16 and other enteroviruses.The dominant strains of enteroviruses alternated between 2014 and 2017.Radar distribution showed that EV71 and CoxA16 were mainly distributed in May,and EV71 strain was superior to CoxA16.The dominant strains of the pathogeny of hand,foot and mouth disease in different regions in the past four years have not only changed;there are also multiple infections of EV71,CoxA16 and other types of viruses.The incidence of children is mainly under 5 years old,accounting for 97.00%of the total number of cases,of which the incidence is mainly concentrated in the 1 year old group and the 2 year old group respectively accounted for 37.11%,25.57%;The disease has obvious spatial and temporal agglomeration,mainly concentrated in the central city and Shuifu County;The main meteorological factors affecting hand,foot and mouth disease are daily average temperature of 15-25 ?(P<0.001,OR=5.28),daily average temperature ? 25 ?(P<0.001,OR=3.26);daily average humidity>75 mm(P=0.045,OR=1.33),daily average precipitation>7(P<0.001,OR=0.60),and daily mean wind level>4.5(P=0.013,OR=0.72).The average risk score of hand,foot and mouth disease in Zhaotong City is 14.06,and the risk index RI is 2.13,which is a high-risk epidemic.Based on meteorological factors,the risk prediction model of hand,foot and mouth disease in Zhaotong City was developed and visualized.The area under the ROC curve of the model was 0.74.Conclusions:The key areas for prevention and control of hand,foot and mouth disease in Zhaotong City are central cities and tourist cities.At the same time,it is necessary to strengthen risk assessment,monitoring and early warning in various regions.The key period of prevention and control is from February to November,the peak period of the case is from March to July,and the second peak is November.The key population is children under 5 years of age,with scattered children and young children as the main population.Meteorological factors have an impact on the occurrence and development of foot and mouth disease;Based on the main meteorological factors,the risk prediction model of hand,foot and mouth disease in Zhaotong City was successfully established,which is helpful to improve the early warning and prediction system of hand,foot and mouth disease.