Analyses On Effects Of Meteorological Factors On Hand,Foot And Mouth Disease And The Incidence Trend Prediction In Suizhou City

Objective:To know the epidemiological characteristics of hand,foot and mouth disease?HFMD?and to analyze the influence of meteorological factors on the incidence of HFMD,and to establish a time series model to predict the incidence of HFMD,and ultimately to provide scientific evidence for prevention and control HFMD.Methods:Excel2013 was used to organize the incidence data of HFMD and to establish databases.The epidemiological characteristics of HFMD were described by cross-sectional study from 2009 to 2017 in Suizhou city.Based on R4.3.5.1 software,Spearman method was used to explore the correlation between the weekly number of HFMD cases and meteorological factors.On this basis,Generalized Additive Model?GAM?was established by the“mgcv”to estimate the nonlinear effect of meteorological factors with HFMD.A reasonable Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model?SARIMA?model was established based on"forcast"and"tseries"using the data of monthly number of HFMD cases,which was used to predict the incidence trend in 2018.Results:1.A total of 29,010 cases of HFMD were reported from 2009 to 2017in Suizhou City,which the incidence rate fluctuated between 77.55/100,000 to 217.67/100,000 and the average annual reported incidence was 140.13/100,000.There were 22 severe cases and 5 deaths.The incidence of severe cases was 7.58/10,000,and the case fatality rate was 1.72/10,000.2.The incidence of HFMD showed obvious seasonality,which the first incidence reached a peak in April to May and the second incidence reached a peak in October to December,accounting for 45.00%?13050/29010?and 13.67%?3965/29010?,respectively.3.The majority of HFMD cases were infants aged 0 to 4 years old,accounting for95.46%?27694/29010?of the total number.The gender ratio is 1.828:1?18751/10259?,and the number of children in scattered children is the highest,accounting for 80.97%?23489/29010?of the total number of cases.4.The weekly average temperature was positively correlated with the weekly incidence of HFMD in the range of[-1.6,19.0)°C,but negative correlation in the range of[19.0,31.8]°C;the average maximum temperature was positively correlated with the weekly incidence of HFMD in the range of[1.6,25.0)°C,but negative correlation in the range of[25.0,39.0]°C;the weekly average minimum temperature was positively correlated with the weekly incidence of HFMD in the range of[-6.9,15.0)°C,but negative correlation in the range of[15.0,27.7]°C;the weekly average air pressure was positively correlated with the weekly incidence of HFMD in the range of[987.9,998.5)hPa,but negative correlation in the range of[998.5,1022.5]hPa.When the weekly average sunshine hours are within[0,4.0]hours,the weekly incidence of HFMD gradually increased with the increasing weekly average sunshine.After more than 4hours,tthe weekly incidence of HFMD tended to be stable and was no longer affected by sunshine.5.The residual of SARIMA?0,0,2??2,1,0?₁₂ model was diagnosed as a white noise sequence.The mean relative error was 9.26%,presenting a high fitting precision.It is estimated that the number of patients with HFMD in 2018 would be 2,268 and the annual incidence would be 103.52/100,000.Conclusion:1.The HFMD in Suizhou City was characterized by high incidence in spring and autumn,and infants and young children aged 0 to 4 years old were the key prevention and control groups.In particular,the detection and prevention of scattered children should be strengthened.2.The correlation between the weekly incidence of HFMD and weekly average temperature,weekly average maximum temperature,weekly average minimum temperature,weekly average sunshine hours,weekly average daily precipitation Suizhou City presented as nonlinear effect.3.The short-term prediction effect of SARIMA?0,0,2??2,1,0?₁₂ model on the incidence of hand foot and mouth disease in Suizhou city is good.