| With the increasing complexity and diversification of the demands for technological innovation,the importance of research on technological fusion is getting increasingly prominent,having attracted the attention of governments at all levels and experts and scholars in various fields.Although technological fusion is no longer a new research topic,the related research is still in its infancy,especially on how to measure the level of industrial technological fusion effectively,launch scientific prediction timely as well as other research issues.Besides,technological fusion has become a vital trend and inevitable choice of technology innovation in emerging industries.Choosing a right direction of future technological fusion is of great significance for emerging industries to grasp innovation opportunities and make decisions on technological fusion and innovation.Therefore,there is an urgent need to use advanced theories and research methods to forecast the direction of technological fusion in emerging industries.On the basis of summarizing the relevant research results of emerging industries,technological fusion,and link prediction at home and abroad,this dissertation defines the connotation of technological fusion of emerging industries,analyzes the process of technological fusion of emerging industries,clarifies the influencing factors,occurrence conditions and characteristics of technological fusion,and puts forward the forecast method framework of emerging industries’ technological fusion direction.Next,this dissertation selects related indicators and proposes corresponding state analysis method to grasp the current state of technological fusion and the technology fields that have an important impact on the fusion.Then,taking the impact of the interaction between multi-technology fields on technological fusion into account comprehensively,this dissertation introduces the link prediction method,designs the forecast method of fusion technology pairs based on global path K atz index,and clarifies the judgment process of technological fusion direction in the future.Finally,the dissertation verifies the applicability and feasibility of the whole set of direction forecast method through forecasting the technological fusion direction of electric vehicle industry in China,and afterwards puts forward suggestions for the future development of technological fusion of industries.The forecast method designed in this dissertation enriches the theoretical research content of technological fusion forecast to a certain extent.At the same time,the application of this method and the forecast result of future technological fusion direction are conducive to the innovative subject of emerging industries to effectively identify future technological opportunities and reasonably carry out technological innovation layout,and provide reference for the government to formulate relevant innovation guidance policies. |
