Research On China's Port Spatial Spillover Effects Based On Two-Regime Spatial Model

Since the reform and opening up,China's ports have experienced decades of rapid development and achieved remarkable results.China's port completed a cargo throughput of 14.351 billion tons in 2018,including 9.463 billion tons in coastal ports and 4.888 billion tons in inland ports.In terms of scale of operations,many port groups in China have entered the"world-class" level.However,since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008,the growth rate of China's ports has slowed down.There has been fierce competition inside and outside of the port group.Many problems such as overcapacity have begun to emerge.To solve these problems,the central and local government departments have successively issued a series of policies to optimize the port layout and coordinate port development.As China's economic development enters a new normal,the role of ports as an important strategic resource in economic and social development has become more and more important.The"Belt and Road" initiative and the "Beijing-Tianj in-Hebei integration" strategy put forward by the state also need higher requirements for.port connectivity.Under this background,it is very necessary to understand the current development situation of ports in different regions of China,study the relationship between economic factors and port development at the current stage,and explore the spatial layout of ports and the effects of integrated policies over the years.For this reason,this article applies the two-regime spatial model to analyze the port spatial spillover effects for the first time.Based on the panel data of China's 128 ports above designated size in 2008-2018,the two-regime spatial Durbin model is used for different development environments to explore the effect of China's port spatial spillover.First,this paper analyzes the basis of the existence of the spatial spillover effect of port development from the concept of spatial spillover effect,the spatial dependence of economic and social development,and the network and externality of ports,and introduces the theory of spatial econometrics in detail.Secondly,China's port spatial layout,operation situation,development environment and development characteristics are introduced to analyze the current status of China's port development.Thirdly,two-regime spatial Durbin model is introduced to analyze China's port development spatial spillover effect.The selection of data sources and variables,spatial weight matrix,spatial correlation test and the final model comparison selection were analyzed in detail.Finally,based on the analysis of the direct spillover effect and indirect spillover effect that affect the development of China's ports,this paper compares and analyzes the intensity of port spatial spillover effects of different scale,different regions and different integration strengths.Finally,based on the analysis results,corresponding suggestions are put forward to promote the coordinated development of ports.The research results' show that:First,the average annual growth rate of coastal ports and inland ports is almost the same,and the regional port coordinated development policy has achieved certain effect.The slowdown in the growth of large-scale ports is mainly related to the adjustment of its own positioning.The slowdown of small-scale ports is greatly affected by factors such as the natural environment.Most of the ports with fast-growing throughput are located in cities where they promote policies related to port resource integration.Second,the continuous increase in the total economic volume and the level of imports and exports have enhanced the internal momentum of port development;the level of infrastructure investment has a negative correlation with port development through indirect spillover;the effect of urbanization on the scale of agglomeration has not yet improved the port development;industrial structure adjustment has slowed down the development of China's ports to a certain extent.Third,the spatial spillover effect of large-scale ports is significantly greater than that of small-scale 'ports,and the value difference is 0.390;the coefficient of spatial spillover effect of ports located in coastal areas is significantly greater than that of ports located in inland river areas,and the value difference is about 0.321;port integration will reduce the intensity of competition between ports,and spatial spillover effects in regions with strong integration intensity are 0.046 higher than the national average.The research in this paper is helpful to enrich the theoretical research on the port spatial spillover effect in China.This paper is also helpful to understand the pattern of China's port spatial development at this stage,and improve the regional port coordination development policy,which has important practical significance for promoting China's port development.