Research On The Effects Of RMB Exchange Rate Fluctuation On China's Export Trade Of Mechanical And Electrical Products

Exchange rate is closely related to the foreign currency price of a country's exports,and the increase of two-way fluctuation of RMB exchange rate after 811 Exchange Rate Reform will inevitably bring uncertainty to China's export trade.As China's largest export category,mechanical and electrical products have the characteristics of high capital intensity and high technology intensity,and their development is related to China's manufacturing level and technological strength.Therefore,it is of practical significance to study the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on China's export trade of mechanical and electrical products.Based on the elasticity theory and the incomplete exchange rate pass-through theory,this paper theoretically expounds the relationship between exchange rate fluctuation and export trade.Then it analyses the trend of RMB exchange rate,the export scale and structure of China's mechanical and electrical products,and calculates export technical sophistication index of all kinds of mechanical and electrical products under SITC code.In the empirical part,using panel data of China and 34 trading partners from 2001 to 2017 in the classical trade gravity model,this paper mainly studies the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the export of mechanical and electrical products from the two aspects of export market and export commodities.This paper first studies the heterogeneity influence of RMB exchange rate changes on China's exports of electrical products to different countries.Secondly,this paper studies the heterogeneity influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on mechanical and electrical products export under SITC code.Finally,the econometric model is improved to test whether the increase of export technical sophistication of mechanical and electrical products is conducive to withstanding the exchange rate risk of exports.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)China's export of mechanical and electrical products to developed countries is facing greater exchange rate risks,and China's export of mechanical and electrical products to developing countries is not affected by the change of RMB exchange rate;(2)Automated data processing equipment and electronic communication products have higher technology level and stronger ability to withstand exchange rate risks,while automobiles and ships have weaker ability to withstand exchange rate risks.(3)The higher the technology level is,the smaller the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on the export of mechanical and electrical products will have.Improving the export technical sophistication of mechanical and electrical products will help to resist the exchange rate risk of exports.Finally,according to the results of the study,the paper puts forward some suggestions for the government to formulate exchange rate policy,export policy of various kinds of mechanical and electrical products,industrial restructuring of mechanical and electrical products,and puts forward different suggestions for different export enterprises of mechanical and electrical products to resist exchange rate risk.The innovation of research lies in:(1)the innovation of research perspective.This paper studies the influence of RMB exchange rate fluctuation on the heterogeneity of China's exports of mechanical and electrical products to developed and developing countries from the perspective of export market.Besides this paper calculates the export technical sophistication index of the export of mechanical and electrical products,objectively judges the export quality and technical content of all kinds of mechanical and electrical products in China,explains the incomplete transfer effect of exchange rate from the perspective of the quality and technical content of export commodities,and based on this theory,analyses the heterogeneous impact of exchange rate changes on the export of various mechanical and electrical products in China.(2)Adding other indicators to the study.When studying the relationship between RMB exchange rate and the export of mechanical and electrical products,besides the exchange rate level index,the exchange rate volatility index is also added to analyze the impact of RMB exchange rate risk on the export of mechanical and electrical products in China.In the improved measurement model,export technical sophistication index is added to test whether the improvement of technology level of mechanical and electrical products in China can enhance its ability to resist exchange rate risk.