Research On Income Risk Management Of Prefabricated Residential Projects From The Perspective Of Developers

The development of prefabricated buildings is a major change in the way of construction.It is an important measure for China to promote structural reforms on the supply side and new urbanization.Since 2016,the State Council and relevant government departments have promoted the development of prefabricated buildings through continuous implementation of policies,and constantly improved and optimized the prefabricated construction industry chain,making the prefabricated building development into a fast lane.As an important role in the prefabricated construction industry chain,real estate developers should actively promote the construction of prefabricated construction projects.However,the development of China's prefabricated buildings is still in its infancy.Developers encounter more practical obstacles in the process of advancing assembly-type construction,lack of mature experience in risk management of fabricated construction projects,due to imperfect standards and systems,high costs,etc.Concerns about the benefits of prefabricated construction projects,cautious and wait-and-see attitude towards the construction of prefabricated construction projects,seriously hindered the development of prefabricated buildings.Prefabricated residential construction is an important area for the development of prefabricated buildings;and developers are mainly engaged in the development and construction of residential projects in the market.Therefore,this paper studies the income risk management of prefabricated residential projects based on the developer's perspective and provides developers with relevant risk management experience.Firstly,this paper summarizes the literatures related to the income risk management of prefabricated residential projects at home and abroad,and sorts out the main research results and related theoretical methods about these researches.Then this paper also summarizes the related concepts of fabricated residential projects and their income risks,risk management theory and social network theory.Secondly,based on literature analysis,field research,expert interviews,etc.,this paper initially identifies the risk factors affecting the income of the developer's fabricated residential projects,and then this paper uses the improved TOPSIS method to optimize the list of income risks based on the probability of occurrence of risk factors and the degree of loss to the target,thus forming a final risk list.Then this paper uses the consistency analysis method to clarify the relationship between the risk factors,determine the risk relationship adjacency matrix,and establish the network diagram of the income risk factors of the fabricated residential project.This paper uses the social network analysis method(SNA)to conduct the overall risk network and the individual network for getting the quantitative calculation of the block model density matrix of the risk network,the middleman relationship of the risk factors and the intermediate center degree of the risk factor relationship.Then this paper can identify and analyze the key risk factors and the key relationship between risks at the core of the risk network.This paper uses the network density,clustering coefficient and other overall network analysis indicators to analyze the impact of key risk factors and key risk relationships on the correlation between risk factors,which aims to obtain the impact of key risk factors and key risk relationships on the risk network.Finally,this paper develops a corresponding income risk response framework from the perspective of the developer enterprise.According to different risk response strategies,the risk response measures are proposed from different aspects of the internal and external aspects of the developer,which aims to provide the developer income risk management experience of prefabricated residential construction.The reference is intended to encourage the developer to develop more and more prefabricated residential projects to promote the development of prefabricated buildings.The results show that:(1)The final income risk list of the fabricated residential project contains 37 risk factors,and there are 10 key risk factors,24 key risk relationships and 1 key risk relationship chain in the risk network.(2)Key risk factors are mainly from the policy risks and market risks outside the developsers and technical risks inside the developers.Meanwhile key risk factors and key risk relationships are reflected at all stages.(3)The key income risk factors in the decision-making stage are more than the key income risk factors in the design,component production and transportation,assembly and construction,and marketing delivery stages,which have a relatively large impact on the profit risk of the developer's fabricated residential projects.(4)The four key risk factors including “the government's guidance and regulatory policies are imperfect”.play a role as the core risk source in the risk network.The six key risk factors including “the feasibility study and the target positioning are not allowed” play a core connection in the risk network.