Research On Construction Schedule Risk Of Prefabricated Building Project Based On Social Network Analysis

In recent years,with the rapid growth of China’s economy and the acceleration of the process of urbanization,the construction industry has shown an unprecedented development trend.However,the extensive growth mode of the traditional construction industry has caused a series of problems such as project delays,cost overruns,quality safety,and energy pollution.The development of the construction industry faces huge challenges.Facing the problems of sharply increasing construction demands and rising labor costs,the construction industry urgently needs to change production methods,and with the help of modern scientific management technology,it advocates the concepts of energy conservation,environmental protection,sustainable development and green buildings.The construction industry has shifted from extensive to intensive.As an important means of promoting the industrialization of construction,prefabricated construction is the only way to achieve new-type urbanization construction and green,sustainable,and high-quality development of the construction industry.Prefabricated buildings have been vigorously promoted by the state,but their promotion and application in China still face many problems.Among them,the uncertainty of project progress has increased due to the increase of factory production,transportation,and field assembly.With the improvement of the requirements for refined management of prefabricated construction projects,traditional schedule risk management has been unable to adapt to the development trend of prefabricated buildings,and it is necessary to explore research methods that match prefabricated buildings.In this paper,the progress risk of prefabricated construction projects is taken as the research object.Based on the theories of prefabricated constructions,social network analysis,and risk identification,and combined with the characteristics of prefabricated construction projects,the overall scheme of modeling and analysis of social network related theories is determined.Firstly,the literature research and classic experience method were used to get a list of preliminary stakeholders and affiliated schedule risk factors.According to the literature review method and expert interview method,the schedule risk factors that may be encountered in prefabricated construction projects were summarized and counted.Then,through the questionnaire survey,the impact index statistics of the progress risk factors are summarized to obtain the risk list table,and the risk factors are selected by statistical methods to reduce the number of research indicators and determine the final progress risk list.Finally,the Delphi method is used to determine the correlation between schedule risks.Ucinet 6.0 software is used to build a social network model.The overall network indicators and individual network indicators are analyzed to identify the key schedule risks.This paper discusses strategies for the management of different progress risks and proposes simulation schemes for risk control results.This article takes Harbin Institute of Technology Shenzhen Campus Extension Project II bid section project as an example,and applies the constructed social network model of construction project progress risk to this project.According to the relevant measurement indicators of social network,the key risk progress factors of the project are identified.Finally,the corresponding progress risk management strategy is proposed in the ideal and realistic situations.From the perspective of risk relationship,this paper uses social network analysis method to study the construction schedule risk of prefabricated building projects,which enriches the risk research method system,innovates the perspective of traditional risk research,and broadens the research field and application scope of social network analysis theory.