Research On The Whole Life Cycle Risk Management Of Photovoltaic Power Generation Project

Photovoltaic power generation has become an inevitable trend of global energy supply in the future,and its industry has made great progress,but projects bring opportunities as well as risks to enterprises.For photovoltaic enterprises,a standard photovoltaic power generation project includes the prophase period,implementation period,operation and maintenance period,and risks exist in each stage.Aiming at the risk control of photovoltaic power generation projects,this paper takes the whole life cycle of projects as the route,and provides a reference basis for project managers to make decisions by building risk control model and risk decision model,The research is carried out from the following aspects.(1)Risk management theory and industrial development analysis of photovoltaic power generation projects.On the basis of expounding the basic risk theory and stakeholder theory,this paper puts forward the structural model of risk management in the whole life cycle of photovoltaic power generation projects,and analyzes the characteristics of risk management in photovoltaic power generation projects by adopting qualitative methods.(2)A risk management model for the early stage of photovoltaic power generation project is constructed.According to the commonly used methods and principles of risk identification at present,the risk factors in the early stage of the project are analyzed by combining the expert survey method,WBS-RBS analysis method and checklist method.Based on the interpretation structure model,the relationship between various factors is sorted and divided into levels.The above identified early-stage risks are evaluated by the combination of matter-element extension and sequential relationship method,and applied to an example.The results show that the established risk management model is correct and feasible,and provides decision basis for the risk managers in the early stage of the project.(3)The risk management model of photovoltaic power generation project during the implementation period is constructed.According to the characteristics of risks in the implementation period of photovoltaic power generation projects,the risk index system in the implementation period of photovoltaic power generation projects is constructed,and then the cloud model theory is used to comprehensively evaluate the risk management in the implementation period.Finally,the model is applied and analyzed with an example,which not only verifies the effectiveness and usability of the model,but also provides decision-making basis for the managers in the implementation period.(4)The risk management model of photovoltaic power generation project duringoperation and maintenance period is constructed.Combined with the characteristics of photovoltaic project operation and maintenance period,a multi-level index system is constructed from four aspects of economy,technology,management and policy,and a risk assessment model based on fuzzy analytic hierarchy process is constructed.The problem of multi-level and fuzzy quantification of risk assessment in operation and maintenance period has been solved.Finally,according to the risk assessment results of the solar photovoltaic power generation project,the risk response measures are proposed.