Research On Reliability Analysis Of Organizational Behaviorand And Its Application In Nuclear Power Plants

With the improvement of hardware reliability,human error has become the main cause triggering industrial accidents.Catastrophic accident investigations in complex industrial systems such as nuclear power plants(NPPs)have shown that organizational and management errors are the root cause causing human error.Therefore,the prevention of organizational behavior errors and improvement of organizational behavior reliability is one of the important means to improve the safety of NPPs.So far,there have been few studies on organizational behavior errors and reliability at home and abroad.They only regard organizational errors as factors that affect human error,but do not deeply study the mechanism of organizational behavior errors and quantify evaluation method of organizational behavioral reliability etc.Therefore,this paper intends to make efforts in this area and carry out relevant research and exploration in order to provide theoretical support for organizational error prevention and risk assessment of high-risk systems such as NPPs.The literature research method,on-site interview,investigation method and event report analysis method are firstly used to establish the model of organizational error mechanism in the paper,the classification of organizational errors,the classification of influencing factors and possible ways of influence are identified by the established model.The questionnaire survey method is used to identify the importance of the influencing factors,thus the state of important influencing factors will be improved in a targeted manner to prevent the occurrence of organizational errors.Next,in order to identify the reliability or risk of specific organizational behaviors under specific scenarios,however,the different influencing factors have different effects on organizational behavior,and different state levels have different effects on organizational behavior,the evaluation of levels of influencing factors has the characteristics such as ambiguity and uncertainty.Therefore,a fuzzy evaluation method considering the weight of influencing factors——Analytic Hierarchy Process + Fuzzy Logic method is established.The analytic hierarchy process is used to identify the weight of the factors affecting organizational behavior,and the fuzzy logic method is used to establish a fuzzy logic evaluation system.The combination of the two methods makes the evaluation results more objective and realistic.Finally,a case study is given to illustrate the specific application of the method.,which provide theoretical and practical support for the quantitative assessment of organizational behavior risk or reliability in NPPs.