Research On Risk Evaluation Of Flexible Resource Scheduling On User Side Of Zhejiang Power Grid

The particularity of electrical energy determines that the power grid must be pre-programmed to ensure the reliability of the system operation.In recent years,the highest electricity load in Zhejiang Province has been constantly refreshing records,and the traditional day-ahead dispatch has not been able to solve the energy shortage and power shortage situation.For power system operation problems,besides security,reliability and economy,flexibility should be considered to cope with the negative impact of uncertainties on power system.Flexible resources can be directly controlled or dispatched,and the output power can be quickly adjusted up or down.The dispatching process of resources is affected by power grid operating conditions,external environment changes,consumer consumption psychology and other factors,and there is the possibility of unresponsive or partial response.Therefore,the risk assessment of user-side flexible resource dispatching can improve the energy utilization efficiency of demand-side,promote the rational distribution of demand-side industries,and reduce the cost of electricity investment.It is an important guarantee for building a conservation-oriented and sustainable development society.Through consulting data and field investigation,this paper firstly analyzes and summarizes the research trends of flexible resource scheduling,demand response and risk assessment methods at home and abroad.Secondly,it introduces user-side flexible resources based on domestic and foreign research,including flexible resource definition,characteristics and classification.The paper also summarizes the process and common methods of comprehensive evaluation.Thirdly,it analyzes the situation and risk of flexible resource dispatch on the user side of Zhejiang power grid,and identifies the risk factors of technical risk,economic risk,social risk and natural environment risk.Based on the results of identifying risk factors,the risk evaluation indexes of flexible resource dispatching on the user side of Zhejiang power grid are selected by fuzzy expert scoring method from four aspects of technical risk,economic risk,social risk and natural environment risk,and the wind of flexible resource dispatching on the user side of Zhejiang power grid is constructed.Finally,the risk assessment model of flexible resource dispatch on the user side of Zhejiang power grid based on TOPSIS method and grey relational analysis method is constructed,and the application research of the model is carried out according to the actual and simulated data of various indicators of Zhejiang power grid from 2013 to 2017.The risk ranking of flexible resource dispatching on the user side of Zhejiang power grid in each year is given,and the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward according to the evaluation results.This paper studies the risk of user-side flexible resource dispatching,and establishes a risk assessment model of user-side flexible resource dispatching in Zhejiang power grid It can accurately evaluate the evaluation object based on the risk of flexible resource scheduling on the user side of Zhejiang Power Grid.It provides a theoretical basis for risk management and control of flexible resource scheduling on the user side,and helps to make scientific and effective coping strategies,thereby reducing the cost of power investment and resource scheduling,promoting the effective development of flexible resource dispatch on the user side,and ensuring the sustainable development of society.